Push her to the edge, Sheikh Hasina will draw from her experience in successfully fending off US pressures and rally the Bengalis around her
The United States has stepped up pressure on Bangladesh to join its Indo-Pacific military pact to contain China but it is using a false pretext that may rile up the Bengali nation that carries the bitter memory of America's opposition to its birth.
Washington recently sanctioned Bangladesh's elite police unit, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), citing “serious human rights abuses.” Six of its current and former officers have been accused of abductions, murders and torture. Benazir Ahmed, former RAB head who is now chief of Bangladesh Police, has also been barred from entering America.
Last week came a new revelation that America has given Bangladesh until the end of this week to explain how it has spent US military aid. The hidden motive behind this mandate is to potentially impose further penalties if the US funds have been improperly used.
This revelation deepens the suspicion that Washington is using the pretext of human rights abuses to push Bangladesh to become a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal anti-China military pact comprising of the US, Japan, Australia and India.
Bangladesh has faced US pressure at least since October 2020 when Deputy Secretary of State Stephen E. Biegun visited Dhaka and formally invited the South Asian nation to join the group. Dhaka has refused because of threats from China, a significant source of investment capital for Bangladesh.
Both China and America are courting Bangladesh because being next to the Bay of Bengal it can provide easy access to the Indian Ocean, which funnels much of the world trade. By controlling this sea lane, America can choke off China's economy. Bangladesh can give China an alternative land route via Myanmar.
Announcing the sanctions in Washington, D.C., on December 10, Secretary of State Antony Blinken blamed the RAB for more than 600 abductions in the past 12 years and a similar number of murders. The force, founded in 2004 in response to public outcry to control rapidly rising crime, handles internal security as well as criminal and government-directed investigations. In recent years, the government allegedly used it to wipe out political opponents.
Nonetheless, Washington is guilty of double standards. When President Ziaur Rahman railroaded the trials of hundreds of rebel soldiers in 1977 and secretly hanged an undisclosed number of them, America did not publicly chastise him, let alone impose sanctions. Only Jane Coon, then Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, blocked his visit to the White House, ignoring Ambassador Ed Masters' push.
Washington's sanctions strategies often carry hidden agendas. When America imposed sanctions on the Soviet Union after it invaded Kabul, they were billed as part of a mission to rescue Afghanistan, but they were actually intended to warn Moscow not to march into Iran.
Applying the same tactic, Americans are giving Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina two messages: (1) punish the named officers, and (2) join the Quad. Hasina's failure to comply, especially with the second demand, is likely to subject Bangladesh to more sanctions.
Hasina won’t bow
The US steps may embarrass Hasina on world stage but sanctions in general rarely achieve their stated goals. Often they do just the opposite -- make the recipients more rigid. Hasina will certainly not put her police chief on trial, because such a step will open up a Pandora's box, putting her administration and her political future in jeopardy. Even a dumb person knows that the RAB did not act arbitrarily without approval from the top.
To concede the US demands will make Hasina look weak to her followers as well as adversaries. A weak leader is despised in Asia -- and perhaps in other parts of the world, too -- especially if one fails to stand up to big bullies.
This leaves the US with the only hope that its secret strategy to coerce Hasina into the Quad will succeed. Hasina is less than likely to bend over backward to please Washington, simply because of her fear to look weak, if nothing else. Can she afford to be on the wrong side of both India — which is playing second fiddle to America— and the US at the same time? Her records indicate she can.
Furthermore, the region has a history of resisting America's diktat. Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first Prime Minister, refused to join the US-led military pacts in the 1950s. Pakistan's President Ayub Khan snubbed US requests to send soldiers to fight in Vietnam. Even Ziaur Rahman, who was America's poodle, barked when Washington pressed him to support sanctions on Iran in 1979.
Bangladeshis remember Nixon
With its latest steps, America runs the risk of being branded as a nation genetically predisposed to harming the homeland of 165 million Bengalis. Many of them still vividly remember how President Richard Nixon aided their enemy, Pakistan, to pursue his secret ping pong diplomacy via Islamabad. There is still a lingering suspicion that America really does not wish Bangladesh well. Hasina believes deep down that Washington's hidden agenda is to banish her into political oblivion.
Not known for making rash decisions, Hasina has been mum on the sanctions, and is unlikely to open her mouth any time soon, especially because her long-time chief patron, India, is now reported to be a co-conspirator in America's mischief. To bring Bangladesh in line, the US needs India on its side.
India is no more on the same page with Hasina. Dhaka-Delhi relations soured after India botched several trade deals, threatened to push back an alleged 40 million illegal Bengali migrants, and, above all, Indians arraigned Bangladesh for cozying up to China. India won't take any direct action against Bangladesh, but will secretly endorse Washington's dirty tricks.
With its “friendship to all, malice toward none” foreign policy, Bangladesh is between a rock and a hard place. While the Biden administration is pulling Dhaka to its side, China has vowed fire and fury if Bangladesh embraces Uncle Sam.
Since the 1950s, Beijing has refrained from squeezing Delhi too hard lest India jumps into the US orbit. Both America and India may find the Chinese way instructive for dealing with Bangladesh. Instead of bullying, honour Dhaka's neutrality and insist that China not be given an advantage over America and India. Push her to the edge, Hasina will draw from her experience in successfully fending off US pressures and rallying the Bengalis around her, citing America's chronic hostility and mala fide toward the Bengali nation.
(The writer is author of “Bangladesh Liberation War, How India, U.S., China and the USSR Shaped the Outcome” and “The Bangladesh Military Coup and the CIA Link.” His new book, “One Eleven Minus Two, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's War on Yunus and America,” will be published shortly. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at email@example.com)