If Jamaat comes to power it will likely begin with populist moves such as anti-corruption drives, predicts Ahmedur Chowdhury, a Bangladeshi writer and editor who has been living in Norway since surviving a 2015 attack. He says he fears mobilisation of religious groups to push for declaring Bangladesh an Islamic republic and enforce Sharia law. The result would be shrinking freedoms for women, curbs on cultural life, and serious threats to freedom of expression, religious minorities, and secular political and cultural spaces.
The threat from ISIS-K is real and growing. A resurgence in Pakistan would have serious implications for the broader region, including India. The danger is compounded if Pakistan once again attempts to clandestinely redirect ISIS-K towards Kashmir. What may appear as an isolated terror incident is, in fact, part of a wider pattern that demands sustained vigilance. Pakistan’s internal security instability risks creating openings for cross-border terror movements, potentially hardening new militant modules aimed at India and beyond.
The optimistic view is that the “Twin Election” will force a compromise. The referendum provides a mandate for reform that even a BNP government cannot ignore. The “July Charter”, if ratified, creates checks on executive power that did not exist before. The students, even if they end up on the opposition benches, will form a moral pressure group that cannot be easily crushed. The cynical view is that Bangladesh is merely swapping a monopoly for a duopoly, or worse, a monopoly of a different colour.
All signs point to a BNP victory. In a competitive contest without the Awami League, the BNP’s organisational depth and electoral reach make it the frontrunner. Yet victory alone may not translate into authority. The absence of the Awami League, the continued influence of Sheikh Hasina from exile, the rise of Islamist alternatives, and the central role of unelected institutions mean that any new government will inherit a fractured polity. The 2026 election may revive the BNP’s fortunes, but it will not by itself heal Bangladesh’s democratic wounds.
China has already surpassed India in its volume of trade with Bangladesh and is fast catching up to replace it as the top trading partner of Sri Lanka and Nepal. It has extended aid and financial assistance to these states that surpass India’s aid to them
With her Awami League in power since 2009, Bangladesh has seen the army keeping away from a political role, has witnessed relative political stability and rapid economic strides, marking higher human development indicators better than most others in South Asia
South Asia will require at least another decade to recover from the sociological maladies of the post-pandemic global transformations. The looming economic crisis in South Asia may also cause multiple regime changes in the region, potentially producing greater political instability
Therefore, to create greater understanding between the civil societies of South Asia, we must encourage far more civil society interaction on B2B and people-to-people basis.
Now India and Bangladesh have to look for a new foundation to take the relationship between the two countries to a higher level. And deepening of economic ties can create that new foundation.
Overall, many of the vexing problems of long standing can be mitigated quickly by bold and quick measures, denying ammunition to detractors of India-Bangladesh ties on both sides and letting our relationship flourish to its full potential
The JRC discussion should have recognised the sufferings of the people of both sides because of the water scarcity during the lean season flows of the Teesta river and struck a win-win deal that was beneficial to both sides
Both Gwadar and Mundra ports are close to a turbulent region that is violent and militancy-prone. If Gwadar has security problems from within, Mundra has them from without
India has repositioned its earlier policy of providing a home to refugees from Tibet, Afghanistan, Bhutan and Sri Lanka and is forcefully deporting Rohingya refugees
Given these roadblocks, it is not a surprise that the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is a runaway winner in every opinion poll to the dismay of its adversaries who wonder why the economic difficulties of inflation and unemployment are not holding it back
While this exercise was a long overdue and necessary measure, the whole gamut of India’s coastal security in view of terrorist threats and other crimes must function effectively and consistently as there have been instances of breaches in coastal security after 26/11
Defence sources said it was significant that the Dornier was handed over to Sri Lanka by India a day before the high-tech Chinese satellite tracking ship docked at Hambantota
India should also project the values and aspirations of the Indo-Pacific into Atlantic waters to help global development. The SAGAR (Security And Growth for All in the Region) model can be extended to a much larger canvas of mutual cooperation and benefit
If Australia is to emerge as the destination of choice for Indian students, its India strategy needs to be rethought. If this were to happen, international education and institutional collaboration would emerge as a critical building blocks in the bilateral space
The world must remember the refugees’ lives depend on how the international community responds to caring for them as Bangladesh alone cannot afford to support this huge Rohingya population
