The conflict in Iran, in this context, is acting as the moment of revelation. It is showing us what kinds of energy systems are still structurally dependent on distant chokepoints, and what kinds of energy systems are starting to build the foundations for resiliency much closer to home. The trajectory of the Pakistani experience, while still in its early stages, may represent the beginnings of an alternative model, one in which decentralization and renewables are key to managing global instability.

Sri Lanka’s political debate has long revolved around spy narratives, often casting suspicion on India and the United States. Yet, this fixation risks obscuring a more pressing reality. CrowdStrike’s 2025 Global Threat Report identifies Chinese espionage agencies as the most active worldwide, surpassing even the CIA. In 2024, China’s cyber operations expanded by 150 percent, while attacks on financial services, media, manufacturing, and industrial sectors surged by 200 to 300 percent compared to the previous year. 

As Imran Khan enters his seventies behind bars, the stakes extend far beyond his individual fate. Should his detention continue—or worse, should harm befall him in custody—the consequences could be explosive. Public anger, already simmering, may erupt into widespread unrest, challenging the state’s ability to maintain control. 

Bangladesh has survived partition, the liberation war, famine, floods, military coups, and democratic collapse. It has always returned. But returning is not the same as resolving. Fifty-six years after independence, the founding paradox remains: a nation whose birth is still debated cannot fully inhabit its future. The gun salutes will be loud and unambiguous. The questions they echo, however, about what Bangladesh is, who founded it, and whose vision should guide it, remain, as they have always been

For India, this raises complex challenges. Historically, India has positioned itself as a strong advocate of anti-colonialism and sovereignty. However, in the current context, its responses have often appeared measured and cautious, despite the direct implications for its interests—ranging from energy security and regional stability to strategic initiatives such as connectivity through Iran.

For India, the failure is particularly significant as its presidency was an opportunity to translate “strategic autonomy”, the current buzzword in foreign policy circles, into multilateral leadership. True, its response is shaped by structural constraints. The country imports more than 85% of its crude oil, much of it from West Asia and Russia. Some nine million of its citizens live in the Gulf. The United States is its largest trading partner. Iran anchors the Chabahar port project and India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Each relationship is too consequential to risk.

A key consideration for Delhi is Bhutan’s occasional denial or downplay of any Chinese encroachment on its territory, even when satellite data suggests otherwise. This is coupled with a growing perception within Bhutan that India is preventing it from completing its border negotiations with China. Although Thimphu remains closely aligned with Delhi, there is growing interest in expanding its engagement with China.

For India, the opportunity is significant as its robust digital infrastructure and large demographic dividend can create a significant opportunity for adoption and deployment of Artificial Intelligence across sectors, particularly in the care economy. There is an ample room for the development of age-friendly products and services using AI innovation which are of scalable commercial value.

South Asia's higher education ecosystem — with over 1,500 universities and 60 million enrolled learners — is uniquely positioned to absorb and scale new models: work-integrated degrees, on-demand micro-credentials, lifelong learning. The Global South — Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East — shares the same structural challenges. The solutions that work at scale in India, Bangladesh or Nepal will travel naturally to these geographies.

For three decades, Sri Lanka successfully navigated the India-China rivalry, turning great-power competition into economic opportunity. Today, the country faces a far narrower and more dangerous corridor. Balancing between India and China was a game of leverage. But, balancing between the United States-Israel axis and Iran is a test of survival.

India’s calibrated reopening to Chinese FDI is a step forward, but its restrictive framework may limit the inflow of capital, technology, and expertise needed to boost high-tech manufacturing. If the objective is to transform India into a global manufacturing hub and reduce the trade deficit with China, a more nuanced approach may be required—one that balances security concerns with economic imperatives.

What is unfolding across South Asia’s cities is not just an urban crisis, it is a reflection of deeper tensions within development itself. Growth is happening, but it is not translating into stability. Opportunities exist, but they are unevenly distributed. Systems are expanding, but not fast enough to keep up with demand. Cities, which have long been seen as places where people come to improve their lives, are increasingly becoming spaces where people struggle to sustain them. 

South Asia’s tragedy is not geography or lack of industrial capacity. It is the failure to convert proximity into predictable partnerships. Trump’s tariff threats could remain episodic political theatre, or they could signal a more protectionist global environment. Either way, South Asia’s dependence on Western concessions exposes it to recurring uncertainty. Reviving SAFTA in spirit and substance would not eliminate trade with the West. It would diversify risk and embed value creation within the region.

The current war has exposed Bangladesh’s structural vulnerabilities: dependence on imported energy, fragile reserves, and narrow fiscal space. For the new government, the stakes are clear—stabilize fuel and food supplies now while building resilience through diversified energy, broader exports, and stronger social protection. Wars in the Gulf may be fought thousands of miles away, but their economic shockwaves reach Bangladesh within days. In the end, the crisis will be felt in three simple pressures shaping everyday life: oil prices, food costs, and migrant jobs.

This crisis did not emerge overnight. It is a product of neglecting the foundational capacity to invest in human capital, where Pakistan hardly puts less than 2% of its national GDP on human capital factors. Meanwhile, the regional peers like Bangladesh and India invest more in education and health, and Pakistan is still trapped in a cycle of short-term fiscal thinking, political instability, and elite capture that is systematically hollowing out the nation’s potential to rise and grow.