All of this would be consequential even under a fully elected government with a clear popular mandate. It becomes more troubling when done by an interim administration. Trade and security alignments of this magnitude shape a nation’s geopolitical posture for decades. They influence relations with China, Russia, India, the European Union, and ASEAN. They affect bargaining positions in multilateral forums. They alter perceptions among investors and strategic planners. After the national election on February 12, the elected government will inherit this architecture. They will face a choice: comply and accept narrowed autonomy, or attempt renegotiation and risk economic retaliation.
