The Amazon  is known as the world’s largest river by discharge volume. Its vast waters empty into the Atlantic Ocean precisely where the city of Belém in Brazil sits — the venue for COP30, the Conference of the Parties to the Paris Climate Agreement, being held from 10–21 November.

Against this backdrop of abundant Amazonian waters, the meagre flow of climate finance from the Global North to the Global South will be the single most critical issue threatening the core of negotiations in Belém.

A Chasm of Broken Promises

The Amazon cuts through Brazil, dividing it into North and South. Similarly, broken financial promises by the Global North — stretching from the Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the Paris Agreement (2015) — have created a vast trust deficit among negotiators.

The continued failure to deliver adequate, accessible, and predictable climate finance represents a serious breach of the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).

As COP30 unfolds, Brazil’s efforts to bring “fresh air” from its Amazonian forests into global climate action remain remarkable. Yet, the gap between rhetoric and actual financial flows has widened into a chasm of distrust. Understanding the historical trajectory and present realities of climate finance is essential to see the “forest for the trees” and find a path forward. The success of COP30 hinges on a breakthrough on this intractable issue.

Origins of Climate Finance: A Foundational Pillar

Climate finance is not an afterthought; it is integral to global climate cooperation. It was formally established in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

All three major agreements — the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement — stress the need for climate finance for developing countries. The Kyoto Protocol introduced the first mechanisms; the Paris Agreement expanded them and reiterated that developed countries must provide “new and additional” financing for mitigation and adaptation in the developing world.

The CBDR principle was first formalized in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro — a historical coincidence given that COP30 returns to Brazil.

Copenhagen to Baku to Belém: Lofty Pledges, Poor Delivery

The much-cited USD 100 billion per year pledge made at COP15 in Copenhagen (2009) was a critical turning point. It set an initial target of USD 10 billion per year, scaling up to USD 100 billion annually by 2020 — a political, not legally binding, commitment. The deadline was later extended to 2025.

At COP29 in Baku (2024), countries agreed that developed nations would mobilize at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035, tripling the earlier target. They also urged public and private actors to mobilize a total USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035 under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) — known as the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T.”

However, climate finance has remained a mirage. According to the OECD (2022), developed countries mobilized only USD 89.6 billion in 2021, with cumulative shortfalls amounting to hundreds of billions. Most of this finance comes as loans, not grants, increasing debt burdens for developing nations.

About 70 percent of funds go to mitigation, leaving adaptation severely underfunded — with devastating consequences for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and poor African nations. Access to finance remains mired in bureaucratic hurdles that keep vulnerable countries trapped.

The Scale of Need

UNFCCC estimates suggest developing countries will need USD 5.8–5.9 trillion by 2030 to implement their climate plans.
The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023 estimates adaptation alone will cost USD 215–387 billion per year.

The Loss and Damage Fund, operationalized at COP28, has received only USD 700 million — a minuscule sum compared to the estimated USD 400 billion in annual climate-related losses faced by developing nations.

Systemic Hypocrisy: The Elephant in the COP Room

A simple comparison reveals deep contradictions. While climate aid is scarce, the Global North continues to direct enormous resources into fossil fuels and military expenditure.

1. Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Fossil fuel subsidies — mostly in developed nations — were

• USD 1.4 trillion in 2022

• USD 1.1 trillion in 2023

Countries like the US, UK, Norway, Canada, and Australia continue to approve new oil and gas fields, contradicting their climate commitments.

2. Energy Hypocrisy

Several developed countries expand renewables domestically while exporting fossil fuels, effectively exporting emissions. The United States, Australia, and Norway are notable examples. This duality harms developing countries by

• supplying them with fossil fuels, and withholding climate finance.

3. Financing Wars but Not the Climate Crisis

According to SIPRI, global military expenditure reached USD 2.24 trillion in 2022.
The US alone spent over USD 800 billion in 2023.

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East involve trillions in expenditures — amounts that could have transformed global climate resilience.

In short, the issue is not a lack of money, but a lack of political will.

Without adequate and predictable finance, the goals of limiting warming to 1.5°C and building global climate resilience are simply unattainable.

Will COP30 Make a Difference?

In a lighter vein, some delegates remark that COP30 already reflects its number — only 30 percent of world leaders are expected to attend. Jokes aside, COP30 can still be a watershed moment if political courage and a tech-savvy Gen Z influence outcomes. Brazil, as a major developing country hosting the summit, provides an opportunity to amplify the Global South’s voice — but only if top-down approaches of world leaders combine with the bottom-up energy of youth. The success of COP30 will be judged by a single, non-negotiable outcome - adoption of an ambitious New Collective Quantified Goal.

It must be

• adequate,

• needs-based,

• just, and

• capable of rebuilding trust between North and South.

Anything less will signal the world’s acceptance of a slow decline rather than a fight for a liveable planet. The time for promises is over. The era of delivery must begin.

(The author is a noted environmentalist, former Director of UNEP, Coordinating Lead Author, IPCC 2007 (Nobel Peace Prize laureate), IIT alumnus, and Founder of the Green TERRE Foundation, Pune, India. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at shende.rajendra@gmail.com.)