Geopolitics was rarely an influencer in deciding where an international student would pursue overseas education because, by and large, international students are apolitical in their choice and primarily driven by marketing images of success and a good life. Over the past nine decades, the US has remained the most sought-after destination for Indian students principally because of the exceptional marketing strategy that the US welcomed migrants with open arms and was a land of opportunity for all. The fact that it also had some of the best universities in the world helped, though these universities were not the preferred choice for the majority of Indian students. In other words, masterful advertising won the hearts of young Indians, who dreamt of a future in the US.

Neither the horrors that accompanied the Monroe Doctrine and McCarthyism nor the continued dehumanization of black Americans nor US government operations in Latin America to overthrow legitimate governments and replace them with dictators nor the uncalled-for brutal foray into Vietnam were deterrents for international students opting to study in the US. Few, if any, were cared that the country that proclaimed itself as the champion of liberty and human rights was, in fact, one of its greatest violators. Mesmerized by the projected image of the US, they embraced Dr. Jekyll, while choosing to be oblivious that he was also Mr. Hyde.

The story is similar vis-a-vis the UK, where two hundred years of ruthless colonial rule in India were simply forgotten, as large numbers of Indians flocked to study and live in the UK. History was literally shut out in search of a personal future. Self-interest and not nationalism or geopolitics were the deciding factor.

Shifts in Thinking 

The exceptions, for different reasons, were the former Soviet Union and China. India’s strong relations with Moscow saw students opting to pursue engineering courses and medical degrees in many of the universities there. It was not communism that attracted them but the quality of education and the warmth with which India was perceived by the local population. China, on the other hand, was perceived as an enemy country, especially after its war with India in the sixties and what most Indians saw as Beijing’s rejection of Nehru’s hand of friendship. Consequently, Indian students did not see China as an overseas education destination.

And then, two cataclysmic events impacted the global order – the Soviet Union collapsed and China’s growth trajectory became meteoric. For the western alliance, at one level, there was jubilation at the disintegration of the Soviet Union and, at another level, fears of China’s rise as it could emerge as a new threat to western hegemony.

At the same time, western universities started to see international students as a major source of revenue. As a result, education was monetized and universities were repurposed as commercial enterprises. This is understandable since, as per current estimates, the global international education market is around $200 billion and estimated to grow to $370 billion over the next few years.

Geopolitics had entered the international education space, as western governments began to use it as a foreign policy instrument to promote western values and influence other cultures into their way of thinking. Significant numbers of Indian and Chinese students bought into the narrative and the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia quickly emerged as preferred destinations for overseas education, with the US enjoying top billing for decades. Other countries, in particular, Germany, Ireland, and even, China, also entered the fray, promising quality education and work-study perquisites. They, too, attracted international students because of the lure of overseas education. Many international students stayed on and became citizens in their adopted country, hoping to seek a dream future.

For the international universities, this was bonanza. There were multiplier spinoffs through living expenses, tourism, restaurants and consumer goods expenditure, infrastructure spending, research funding, and employment. International students also did jobs, at cheaper wages, that the local population refused or lacked the competence. They became the proverbial goose that laid the golden eggs. This was win-win.

West Loses its Sheen 

The threat to this dream run came from on an unexpected quarter. Across much of Europe and North America there was an escalated anti-immigrant sentiment that led to the popular rise of right-wing supporters. Attacks and racial abuse of international students and migrants became commonplace. There was concern among the local population that the immigrants were taking away their jobs, enjoyed a better quality of life, and were a direct threat to their white Christian identity and that soon, the local population could be reduced to a minority. Fearing this rising sentiment, mainstream politics took corrective action through multiple immigration curbs, including those that made it increasingly difficult for international students to enter their shores.

Meanwhile, the Central Intelligence Agency reported that several Chinese students were in covert collusion with the People’s Liberation Army and indulged in intellectual property theft, including on sensitive military technology. This became an added reason to introduce visa curbs on potential students, especially from China. The US decision impacted its allies and countries like Australia, for instance, also became wary of the genuineness of Chinese students.

The ‘other cultures’ that most westerners feared was Islamic. However, diplomatic niceties prevented them from openly acknowledging this. It would further have been politically suicidal to do so, given the large Muslim diaspora in these countries. Attacks on the local population by Islamists fueled the fear factor among the local population. Open threats against the US and its western allies, protest rallies against Israel and rising Zionism, contributed to the anti-immigrant sentiment.

A new geopolitical construct had come on stage, which would have a transformative impact on how the international student made choices on the country of study. The US, Canada, and the UK, which were the top three preferred destinations, began to lose their sheen. Parents of international students, who are the key decision-makers as to where their wards would study, especially in India, felt it was unsafe for their children to study in these countries. Safety became a primary and open concern in decision-making.

Interestingly, Australia also saw a rise in right-wing support but was cautious in its approach. It saw a housing crisis and decided to curb immigration, which it did. But its target was essentially the illegal and fraudulent immigrant, who was pouring in. Doors were still open to genuine students. Indian students continued to perceive Australia as a welcoming and credible higher education destination.

And then, everything turned on its head with the advent of President Trump and the sweeping powers he provided to ICE agents in what was touted as a drive against illegal immigrants. Horror stories emerged of the manner in which ICE agents behaved, including killings of at least two American citizens. The entire visa process was turned topsy-turvy, causing immense harassment. Fears about safety were now combined with deep uncertainty, and the US dropped off the map for Indian students. US universities, as did many others, protested President Trump’s draconian and unreasonable measures but to no avail.

Need for Reliable Destinations 

For parents of Indian and South Asian students, who are risk-averse, going to the US for an overseas education was fraught with too many imponderables. It was better to travel to a more reliable destination, such as, Australia. Germany and Ireland also featured as potential destinations but in terms of scale, Australia was the preferred beneficiary.

Geopolitics is now well and truly an integral part of the international education landscape. Students and their parents have started to weigh multiple scenarios, such as, safety and certainty, before making an informed decision. For Australian education providers this is a golden opportunity to combine international education as a strong business proposition with its foreign policy impact in strengthening strategic relations and promoting its multicultural worldview. In a deeply divided and divisive world, this is the transformative shift that international education requires, if our educational institutions are to produce global citizens.

(The author is a former Indian ambassador and educator. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at berlinbeckons@yahoo.com)