The developments in Afghanistan over recent years reflect a complex and evolving situation from India’s perspective. These developments are not limited to regional stability alone but are intertwined with India’s economic and strategic interests, humanitarian concerns, and values linked to human rights. The situation of the Bagram Airbase, India’s diplomatic engagement with the Taliban-controlled government in Kabul, the worsening condition of women under Taliban rule, and Afghanistan’s strategic importance for India—all these aspects are interconnected and require careful assessment in the context of India’s long-term interests.

The Bagram Airbase, which has gained significant attention in recent strategic discussions, holds both symbolic and practical importance. It served as the central hub of American and NATO operations in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021. After the U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban took control of the base. In 2024 and 2025, speculation emerged that the U.S. might attempt to regain access to the base, especially given its proximity to China, Central Asia, and Iran. The Afghan government strongly opposed this possibility, and major regional powers—including India—jointly rejected any re-establishment of foreign military presence. For India, the stance is clear: Afghanistan’s sovereignty must be respected, and any external attempt to assert control could destabilize the region. Located only about 60 km north of Kabul, Bagram occupies a highly sensitive and strategic position.

India's Strategic Realism

India’s diplomatic engagement with the Taliban has gradually shifted from caution to calibrated pragmatism. In 2021, after the elected Afghan government collapsed, India shut down its embassy in Kabul and evacuated its diplomats. Over time, however, India adjusted its approach. While continuing humanitarian assistance, India opened dialogue with Taliban representatives, which has since taken a more formal shape. In 2025, India announced the conversion of its technical mission in Kabul into a full-fledged embassy—an important step, though not equivalent to granting formal recognition to the Taliban regime. This demonstrates India’s strategic realism and measured diplomatic thinking.

Several reasons underpin India’s approach. India has invested heavily in Afghanistan’s roads, dams, hospitals, education, and institutional development, all of which must be protected. India also recognizes that its absence could create a vacuum that China and Pakistan may exploit. Maintaining its presence in Afghanistan is therefore a strategic priority. Additionally, security remains India’s foremost concern. India has previously experienced attacks on its interests orchestrated or supported through Afghan soil. Ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a base for anti-India activities is essential. India has consistently emphasized this point in discussions with the Taliban, making clear that any long-term cooperation requires firm security assurances.

India's Moral Dilemma

Alongside diplomatic engagement, India faces a moral dilemma, especially regarding the condition of Afghan women and girls. Since the Taliban’s return to power, women’s rights have sharply deteriorated. Girls’ secondary education is banned, women cannot attend universities, and they are barred from working in most NGOs and international agencies. Their public presence has nearly disappeared—no travel without a male guardian, strict dress regulations, and exclusion from professional life. India, which has provided scholarships to thousands of Afghan students—many of them women—views the situation not only politically but as a humanitarian tragedy.

India has raised concerns on international platforms but has not isolated Afghanistan entirely. It believes that continuing humanitarian support, particularly in education and health, may keep alive the possibility of future positive change. Yet Kabul’s stance shows little improvement, raising questions about how much influence India can realistically exert. Even so, India appears committed to maintaining dialogue to preserve future opportunities for constructive engagement.

Challenges And Opportunities

Strategically, Afghanistan is more than a neighbouring region for India; it represents a vital geopolitical space. It offers a potential route for India to access Central Asia. Since Pakistan denies overland access, India has long envisioned trade corridors via Iran’s Chabahar port and onward through Afghanistan. This vision depends entirely on stability within Afghanistan and India’s continued access there. For this reason, India has consistently supported regionally driven solutions with minimal foreign military intervention. India and Afghanistan also share deep cultural, historical, and emotional ties—from the Gandhara Buddhist tradition to the human connections reflected in literary works like Tagore’s “Kabuliwala.” These ties shape India’s view of Afghanistan not only strategically but through a sense of historical responsibility.

India also recognizes that the Taliban itself is attempting to balance multiple pressures. The regime seeks international legitimacy, economic aid, and relief from sanctions. India’s humanitarian role and regional influence make it a potentially valuable partner. Meanwhile, Pakistan—traditionally close to the Taliban—has seen growing tensions with Kabul over border and trade disputes, creating openings for India. China is increasing its presence in Afghanistan, but local apprehensions persist regarding its intentions. In this environment, India’s calibrated engagement serves to balance both China and Pakistan.

From India’s perspective, Afghanistan’s current situation presents both challenges and opportunities. The Bagram issue highlights the region’s deep geopolitical undercurrents, while India’s engagement with the Taliban reflects a pragmatic diplomatic strategy. The condition of Afghan women remains a moral boundary influencing the extent of India’s cooperation. And Afghanistan’s strategic relevance—access to Central Asia, regional security, and geopolitical influence—remains as important as ever. India’s present policy appears guided by the belief that sustained presence and dialogue, rather than isolation, offer the best chance of protecting long-term stability, influence, and national interests. Whether this approach succeeds will depend on Kabul’s willingness to change and New Delhi’s ability to maintain a principled yet practical diplomatic course.

(The writer, a political science graduate from Guru Nanak Dev University, India, is a contemporary and strategic affairs analyst. Views are personal. She can be contacted at anubham95@gmail.com).