The larger lesson is sobering. Pakistan’s experience illustrates the perils of instrumentalising militant proxies for short-term strategic gain. Strategic depth, once viewed as a force multiplier, has become a source of strategic vulnerability. As Islamabad turns to air power to manage a problem decades in the making, the deeper fracture lies not just along the Durand Line—but within the logic of proxy warfare itself.
However, a balanced assessment suggests that India’s superpower trajectory could also generate opportunities for Bangladesh. Enhanced regional connectivity, expanded market access, greater investment flows, and improved regional stability could benefit Dhaka—provided cooperation and mutual respect remain central to bilateral engagement. Ultimately, the impact on Bangladesh will depend not only on India’s power trajectory but also on how both countries manage diplomacy, trust-building, and regional cooperation in an evolving geopolitical landscape.
Today, in 2026, India stands at a historic moment in its healthcare and technological evolution. The convergence of biotechnology, artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and entrepreneurship has created unprecedented opportunities. India’s strengths in scientific talent, digital infrastructure, and cost-efficient innovation position it to become one of the world’s most important centres for healthcare innovation. However, sustained leadership will require continued investment, regulatory reform, and strategic vision.
Yunus paved the way for this election with his credibility as interim administrator intact, but his economic legacy will now be under scrutiny. The man who brought microcredit to the world’s poor — a model replicated across dozens of countries — has struggled to arrest the decline of Bangladesh’s industrial base. Between August 2024 and July 2025, nearly 245 factories closed, displacing approximately 100,000 workers.
Pakistan's transition from imminent default in 2023 to stability in 2025 exemplifies a remarkable macroeconomic reversal in South Asia. In contrast to Sri Lanka, which is mired in post-default restructuring, and Bangladesh, which is experiencing export stagnation, Pakistan's synchronized budgetary discipline and IMF-supported reforms have started to produce concrete outcomes
If there is a doctrine emerging from this moment, it is one of managed interdependence. India’s 25 percent import cap is not just a regulatory rule; it’s a political philosophy. It enshrines diversification as a matter of national security, insulating the economy from both volatility and coercion. No single country — whether Russia, Saudi Arabia, or the United States — should have the leverage to weaponize energy against India.
Yet, no matter how effectively India strengthens its regional partnerships, the enduring challenge of Pakistan and rising Chinese influence cannot be overlooked. Geopolitical churn may reshape alignments, but Islamabad’s propensity for misadventures continues to demand vigilance, alongside engaging in backchannel diplomacy.
Demographic data show South Asia’s working-age population rose from 66.7% (2019) to 67.9% (2024), while the share in high-income countries fell from 65.6% to 64.7%. South Asia’s vast diaspora can further strengthen the region by leveraging knowledge networks, remittances, and investment flows.⁸
New Delhi recently received an official delegation from the Taliban government, led by Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister — the first such visit since the formation of the Islamic Emirate in 2021
If trade tensions intensify, they could unravel years of progress in regional connectivity and energy integration. The same border that once symbolized shared progress could become a faultline of friction. Safeguarding these gains requires renewed dialogue, predictability, and partnership. Trade must be the foundation, not the faultline, of the Dhaka–Delhi relationship.
The movements in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal are a powerful reminder that South Asia's political landscape is being reshaped. A new generation, technologically savvy and politically aware, is unwilling to accept the status quo. The challenges are immense, but the opportunity for a more democratic, prosperous, and just future for the region is undeniable.
As Afghanistan struggles to rebuild, Bagram stands as both a scar and a lesson, a reminder of how intervention failed and how fragile independence can be. For India, backing the idea that no foreign power should return to that base is a way of saying the region must take responsibility for its own peace.
The time has come for New Delhi to consider formally recognizing the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government. The downsides are minimal; the strategic dividends substantial. Engagement would not mean endorsement of ideology but acknowledgment of geopolitical reality.
Taliban’s human rights record, particularly its regressive misogynistic policies are well known. No doubt developing relations with Taliban is a geostrategic requirement. But why did India have to ban women reporters from attending the joint press conference by the two foreign ministers?
The Modi-Trump conversation may appear transactional, but its implications are strategic. If the trade agreement concludes by November, it could mark a turning point, redefining not just tariffs, but the trajectory of India’s global engagement.
The Yunus-led interim government appears, at present, to be leaning toward China. That makes sense in the short term: Beijing offers quick cash, infrastructure projects, and military hardware without raising questions about democracy or human rights. Yet the government’s near-total neglect of India is strategically reckless. Geography cannot be wished away
Far from isolating Russia, weakening China, or bending India and Brazil to Washington’s will, Trump's policies are uniting the Global South in ways unthinkable just a decade ago. They are creating new supply chains, strengthening regional blocs, and forcing nations to embrace economic self-determination.
For now, Washington still holds the advantage at sea. Its fleets and bases across the Indo-Pacific keep Malacca under watch, reminding Beijing that maritime power remains America’s strongest card. But on land, China is advancing incrementally, building assets and leverage that could at some point tilt the balance. The contest between the American thalassocracy and China’s continental reach has only just begun.
While there would be several strategic reasons for India to invite Muttaqi to India, New Delhi’s decision is being seen by women of Afghanistan as a betrayal. Under the Taliban’s misogynist edicts, women have been deprived of most human rights, including the right to education and assembly, reduced to faceless entities in the background where the world appears to have forgotten they exist.
