A relentless monsoon across the India-Pakistan border has devastated hillsides and communities across Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkashi, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, especially Buner.

In Pakistan, heavy rains have already killed nearly a thousand people. The country received over 50% of its annual rainfall in just three months, between June and August 2024. In India, flash floods have killed more than 60 people in Chositi, Kishtwar district; several are still missing. Dharali village in Uttarkashi was wiped out, with at least five dead. In Himachal Pradesh alone, 136 people have died since June in monsoon-related events, while across North India in August, floods claimed more than 400 lives.

A rapid analysis released on August 7 by the World Weather Attribution network found that human-induced climate change made Pakistan’s monsoon rainfall 15% heavier. The study was authored by Mariam Zachariah of the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College, London, and Fahad Saeed, Senior Climate Scientist at Climate Analytics in Germany, along with an international team.

The World Weather Attribution, an international collaboration, studies how climate change influences extreme weather events. Its latest report concluded that Pakistan is already facing a clear increase in extreme monsoon precipitation, with even moderately intense five-year events now producing devastating floods.

“Pakistan is responsible for just 0.5% of historic carbon emissions, but is getting battered by extreme weather,” said Dr Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College and one of the study’s authors, in a press release. “Rich countries who are responsible for climate change have pledged billions in adaptation finance, but where is the money?”

The report notes that house collapses caused 221 deaths across Pakistan, a stark reminder of the dangers of settlement in flood-prone areas. Unlike the record-breaking 2022 floods, which brought an unprecedented 700% increase in rainfall over Sindh, this year’s rainfall was not the heaviest on record -- but it was deadly nonetheless.

“Pakistan’s monsoon has intensified to the point that even months with moderately heavy rain are leading to high death tolls. The downpours we analysed in northern Pakistan are not record-breaking, but point to a broader trend: climate change is making floods increasingly dangerous”, said Dr. Mariam Zachariah in the press statement. She predicts that every tenth of a degree of warming will lead to heavier monsoon rainfall.

Dr. Saeed, a senior climate scientist at Climate Analytics, echoed that warning: “Things will be worse at the Paris Agreement’s temperature target of 1.5°C, but anything beyond this limit would be a death sentence for the poorest and most vulnerable communities in Pakistan”.

The study analysed 30-day maximum annual rainfall events and focused on a region of the most affected districts in the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan, including the cities of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Faisalabad, Peshawar, and Lahore.

“Pakistan’s monsoon has intensified to the point that even months with moderately heavy rain are leading to high death tolls,” said Dr Zachariah, warning that every tenth of a degree of warming will bring heavier rainfall.

Lack Of Early-Warning Systems

Following the 2022 floods, donors pledged about half of the USD 16.3 billion Pakistan required for recovery. Much of this was loans. Between 2023 and 2030, the country is estimated to need USD 152 billion for adaptation, most of which remains unfunded.

The destruction caused by these flash floods or cloud bursts was exacerbated by a lack of early warning systems, because of which people were unable to evacuate or escape.

Both India and Pakistan struggle with ineffective or non-existent early warning systems and disaster preparedness.

“The government was too slow in responding, as always,” says Zofeen T. Ebrahim, a Pakistani climate journalist in Karachi. “What do you expect?”

The Pakistan Meteorological Department had signalled the weather’s trajectory -- late snowfall, followed by simultaneous snow and rain, and summer temperatures in the mountains soaring 7–9°C above normal, she told Sapan News.

Ebrahim added that while the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government announced PKR 800 million [USD 2.8 million] for affected persons and for Buner district respectively, the actual disbursement and accountability remain uncertain.

“Where will they get all this money? Will the affected ever see it? Beyond the loss of lives, homes, and livestock, can we stop blasting our mountains for minerals, can we stop stealing the forests of trees?”

While the Pakistan government may ask the international community for help, she added, it is not putting its house in order. The relief goods have reached the intended areas. Still, there are pending concerns, such as developing early warning systems to enable people to be evacuated, and preventing encroachments on flood paths or along riverbanks.

While the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa authorities and other agencies were actively conducting rescue and relief efforts, there were many casualties, Rana Farhan Aslam from the Urdu daily Nawa-i-Waqt in Islamabad told Sapan News.

The rise in temperature also caused the melting of glaciers before the rains, he added.

Rescue and relief efforts by NDMA, provincial authorities, and other agencies saved thousands, but the losses were staggering.

Land Use Changes

Climate impacts are compounded by fraught India–Pakistan ties. With India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, there is no longer bilateral data sharing on reservoir levels or river flows, critical for flood forecasting. Pakistan fears that unannounced water releases from Indian dams like Pong and Bhakra could worsen downstream flooding.

The NDMA warns that above-normal rainfall and warmer temperatures predicted by the South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum will accelerate glacial melt, raising reservoir inflows.

The lack of real-time hydrological data and coordinated release protocols increases the risk of sudden or unannounced water discharges from these reservoirs into downstream channels. Such releases could result in localized to moderate flooding in vulnerable floodplain communities along the Sutlej River, and also potentially impact areas along the Chenab River, depending on transboundary inflow patterns and tributary responses.

Of late, India has been warning Pakistan about cross-border flooding and heavy rains in the Tawi Sutlej and other major rivers on humanitarian grounds.

While flooding in Pakistan is common during monsoons, the WWA report uncovers the factors that might have driven the flash floods in Pakistan. These include the conversion of agricultural land into residential and commercial developments in many areas, reducing natural water absorption surfaces like wetlands and open spaces, and increasing surface runoff during heavy rains.

In Swat Valley for example, land use changes like deforestation and urban expansion along the Swat River between 2001 and 2022 have combined to intensify runoff, unstable slopes, and the risk of landslides on steep slopes.

Such land use changes contribute to flooding in many parts of the world, including India.

Similar patterns are visible in India, where the NDMA estimates that annual floods affect 7.5 million hectares, kill 1,600 people, and cause damages worth nearly INR 1,805 crore.

Construction along waterways, wetlands lost to development, and poorly planned urban growth have obstructed natural drainage in both countries. In Rawalpindi, for instance, 230 mm of rain in less than a day on 17 July this year overwhelmed drains and submerged homes.

The floods of 2022 submerged a third of Pakistan and displaced 8 million people, many of whom are still not rehabilitated. The floods this year remind us that disasters in Southasia are not bound by borders. With climate change amplifying risks, joint action is not optional -- it is urgent.

Shared river systems, shared vulnerabilities, and shared futures mean that India and Pakistan must set aside hostility and cooperate on vital planetary issues. Equally, both must press the world’s richest polluting nations to deliver on promised climate finance. The deluge is already here.

(The writer is an independent journalist and author, a visiting postdoctoral fellow at the Leeds Arts and Humanities Research Institute, University of Leeds, U.K. Views are personal. By special arrangement with Sapan)