Exchanges between leaders of India and Russia are usually staid, somewhat stodgy affairs in which everything goes by the script and the principals profess themselves to be in a “special” relationship before returning to their more pressing concerns. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two-day state visit to India for the 23rd annual India Russia summit on December 4-5 will be closely scrutinised not just in New Delhi and Moscow, but across capitals worldwide, including Washington, London, Paris, Bonn, Beijing, Kyiv, Riyadh and even Islamabad.

Putin will be making a rare visit outside Russia, his first to India since he launched the war against Ukraine in February 2022 and right after holding talks with US interlocutors about a possible peace agreement to halt hostilities with Kyiv. What he says about the Ukraine war in his discussions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will particularly, therefore, be the focus of global attention.

Putin has had to restrict his travel abroad and could not travel to South Africa for the recently concluded G-20 summit because the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant in his name for war crimes against children in Ukraine in March 2023. South Africa, as a signatory to the Rome Statute, is bound to adhere to ICC protocol. India, however, has not signed the Rome Statute and is not under ICC jurisdiction.

While the visit will certainly provide an opportunity for Putin to review the progress of the India-Russia relationship with Modi, and chart the course to navigate and bolster the bilateral "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership", it is the conversation, and the outcomes, which will be closely monitored in major world capitals.

The Ukraine Factor

In a rather unusual and even undiplomatic public comment, three European envoys to India have written about the Putin visit in a joint op-ed piece for the Times of India newspaper. Britain’s High Commissioner Lindy Cameron, French Ambassador Thierry Mathou and German Ambassador Philipp Ackermann accused Russia of escalating the Ukraine war even while peace talks were underway and said Putin could, if he wanted, immediately end the war.

That such a comment appeared in a newspaper known to be close to the government is a clear indication that New Delhi, which has close ties with the European countries, hopes Putin will make some useful suggestions about how hostilities can end in Ukraine in the light of the recent US proposals and his talks with Trump's interlocutors. Russia’s war with Ukraine will be a focus of the bilateral talks, with India keen to enhance its global stature by being involved in trying to facilitate a peace settlement.

At an earlier summit, Modi had cautioned Putin that “this is not an era of war,” and he will try to urge an early cessation of hostilities with Ukraine even as they try to infuse a momentum into their bilateral relations, particularly the trade partnership.

Defence And Energy Collaboration

Of particular interest will be the outcomes on defence collaboration and energy cooperation, especially whether India will continue to primarily rely on Russia for the bulk of its defence and crude petroleum supplies. According to industry reports in November, indications are that Indian petroleum refiners have been turning to non-sanctioned Russian petroleum companies to source their crude supplies.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated in recent months that he has been assured that India will wind down its purchase of Russian crude by the year's end. Trump, apparently frustrated by India's continued Russian oil imports and its participation as a founder member of BRICS, lashed out at India and imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports to the USA effective from 27 August 2025, hitting Indian manufacturing and exports hard.

Trump recently said that India and the US are “close” to finalising a “very good” trade deal, of course dependent on India’s non-purchase of Russian crude. India has a very narrow path to negotiate while ensuring its national interests and staring down at prohibitive tariffs. This ‘zero sum’ and transactional US attitude has forced a rethink in trade policies globally, and is even hurting the domestic US market.

Also, Trump is desperate to appear like a statesman and end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in time to earn a Nobel Peace prize nomination by the end of January 2026. Ukraine is under a lot of pressure to agree to his terms because his leverage over Russia is limited given how effectively Putin has kept the war effort funded through heavily discounted petroleum sales to countries like India and China.

India’s multi-dimensional and wide-ranging relationship with Russia, with strategic issues, defence and energy security as bulwarks, has been one of the critical pillars of its foreign policy, one it will try to ensure remains vibrant and mutually beneficial and supportive during Putin’s visit, despite pressures. If, additionally, it can gain global stature by furthering a peace agreement on Ukraine, New Delhi will consider it a visit well done.

(The writer is a senior Indian journalist and analyst. Views expressed are personal. She can be reached at nilovarc@gmail.com)