In the coming years, the defining threat along the India–Pakistan border may not come from jets or missiles, but from a fleet of silent, unmanned drones. As global warfare adapts to rapid technological change, India is moving—cautiously but deliberately—to ensure it is not left behind.

Recent cross-border incidents have already shown that drone warfare is no longer the future—it is the battlefield present. In May, Indian defence forces faced a sudden spike in hostile UAV activity along the Line of Control. The response was swift.

Within days, New Delhi approved ₹3,900 crore in emergency drone procurements, while simultaneously accelerating trials of the DRDO’s indigenous loitering munitions and micro-missile systems. These decisions reflect a doctrine that values self-reliance, real-time innovation, and layered defence over imported spectacle.

Pakistan's external dependence, India's indigenisation

Compare that with Pakistan’s growing dependence on Turkish and Chinese drone systems. Military aviation historian Tom Cooper, in a recent interview, described Pakistan as “bankrupt… always kept alive by some sponsor from abroad.” 

That dependency extends to the battlefield. The much-hyped Bayraktar TB2s—praised in Turkey’s campaigns in Syria and Libya—were reportedly rendered ineffective by Indian Akashteer systems in Operation Sindoor, a quiet but decisive test of India’s counter-drone capacity.

The broader picture is clear: drones have dramatically shifted the cost calculus of modern warfare. As analysts have noted, $10,000 drones are now routinely met with $2 million missiles. 

Only a country capable of producing its own unmanned systems, and adjusting its tactics in real time, can maintain strategic credibility under such conditions. India’s strength lies in its capacity to adapt: systems like the Bhargavastra micro-missile array and the Nagastra-1 loitering platform are not merely technical achievements, they are statements of intent.

India’s restraint in deploying drones is often misread as hesitation. But in reality, it reflects a careful understanding of regional risk. As security analysts like Dr Manoj Joshi have noted, the use of unmanned platforms in cross-border operations may appear de-escalatory, but only if the adversary interprets it that way. In South Asia’s nuclear shadow, ambiguity can be as dangerous as aggression. India’s doctrine therefore blends capability with prudence, a combination that ensures both readiness and responsibility.

India's commitment to indigenisation is not limited to government labs. Private-sector innovators like IdeaForge, Adani Defence, and Tata Advanced Systems are now part of the defence ecosystem, producing tactical drones, anti-drone jammers, and AI-assisted targeting systems. This convergence of public and private expertise gives India an agility that few in the region can match. It is also a conscious hedge against sanctions, supply-chain instability, or shifting diplomatic winds.

Growing use of loitering munitions

Nor is the threat from Pakistan the only concern. China’s export of drone technology to Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and even Nepal has added complexity to India’s eastern and maritime frontiers. New Delhi's response, ramping up UAV surveillance along the LAC and commissioning naval drone systems for the Andaman theatre, reflects a broader understanding of regional deterrence.

For India, drone warfare is not just about cross-border skirmishes, it is about defending a wide and shifting perimeter of strategic interest.

History matters, too. The 2019 Balakot strikes were enabled in part by real-time surveillance and precision targeting, tools that have now migrated to autonomous platforms. What was once exceptional is now standard. India recognises that the next Balakot may not involve jets at all, but loitering munitions launched remotely and recovered digitally.

Refine doctrine for unmanned warfare

Britain’s Sunday Times recently warned that Western militaries risk being caught flat-footed by drone-led battlefields because their procurement timelines move in years while wars unfold in weeks. India has begun to grasp that reality. Its focus on public-private partnerships in defence, field trials across high-altitude sectors, and accelerated testing of AI-guided UAVs mark a shift not just in hardware but in mindset.

That said, strategic clarity must now catch up with tactical capability. India must continue to refine its doctrine for unmanned warfare, ensuring inter-service integration and clear rules of engagement that prevent miscalculation. Joint force commands must be equipped to respond to drone incursions as part of an evolving hybrid threat landscape—not merely as isolated provocations. Investment in AI, satellite guidance, and swarm-resilience will be just as important as hardware in the years ahead.

At a time when regional tensions are always one misstep away from escalation, India’s ability to innovate, deter, and restrain will shape the strategic balance. Drones may dominate the skies, but it is clarity of purpose and consistency of doctrine that will determine who controls the narrative on the ground. India’s drone doctrine must not only anticipate the future, but it must also define it.

(The writer is author of ‘India’s Nuclear Bomb’ and a former Diplomatic Editor of the London Observer. Views expressed are personal)