The three-man commission, led by former Special Court chair Gauri Bahadur Karki, probing deaths of 76 people and widespread destruction during the September 8–9, 2025 Gen Z protests in Nepal, was set up on September 21, 2025 and given three months to complete its finding and submit a report to the interim government headed by Sushila Karki.  

The commission has recorded statements from several police officers deployed during the Gen Z protests, some of whom argued they followed orders and should not face legal action. Former Inspector General Police Chandra Kuber Khapung has told the Supreme Court that police acted in good faith within the law, and responsibility for district-level law and order rests with chief district officers, not the police chief.

Families of the victims, Gen Z representatives and civil society figures argue that responsibility ultimately lies with the government of the day. But the commission has yet to summon then prime minister KP Sharma Oli and home minister Ramesh Lekhak for questioning. One member of the commission told the media they are in the process of summoning these former ministers and the commission could seek extension if it fails to complete its work on schedule.

With general elections in Nepal on March 5, 2026, it remains to be seen when the probe report of the commission will be submitted, whether it will be made public and which politicians, officials and police personnel will be and officials will be jailed/face legal action. Would the report be so delayed that acting on it is left to the next government; Sushila Karki sure has a difficult task at hand.

Chinese Influence At Play

The Maoist insurgency in Nepal was spawned by China, which gave rise to the communist parties in Nepal headed by KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, alias Prachanda, both Chinese stooges who have served as prime ministers of Nepal.

Nepal’s President Mohammed Shahabuddin plans to resign after the elections citing humiliation’ by the Interim Government (https://www.facebook.com/CentristNationTV/posts/president-mohammed-shahabuddin-seeks-to-resign-after-election-citing-humiliation/893598456527191/).

Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah (nicknamed Balen) joined the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) last year. In 2023, Balen placed a map of Greater Nepal (which includes some Indian territories) in his office.

The RSP, a centrist party, was a coalition partner in the Prachanda-led government with four cabinet ministries from March 6, 2024 to July 12, 2024. RSP president Rabi Lamichhane fled from the Nakkhu jail during the Gen Z protests, later justifying it as per the decision of the Ministry of Home Affairs. Prison authorities reject this but can the police absolve itself from the mass escape of jailed criminals, whether in connivance with the protesters or not?

Rabi Lamichhane served as the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Home Affairs of Nepal from December 2022 to January 2023. RSP has announced it would have no sister organizations and only have members, not cadres. It had also announced that primary elections would be held to select candidates for elections from the party.

Balen, a 35-year-old rapper, became the mayor of Kathmandu as an independent candidate. But the fact that he has joined the RSP indicates he is interested in participating in the forthcoming elections. At the time of the Gen Z protests, which overthrew the Oli-government, Balen was being seen as a prime ministerial candidate, although he had then indicated disinterest. A Buddhist by birth and having joined a centrist party, Beijing’s influence on him will remain a question mark.  

The US interest in Nepal is to limit Chinese influence, as well as keeping India boxed in from all directions. China would naturally want a government in Kathmandu which is not too friendly with India. To this end, American and Chinese interests in the context of India coalesce to a certain extent.

India's Missteps Cost Dearly

India’s months-long land barricade of Nepal from September 23, 2015, to February 2016, caused a humanitarian and economic crisis, with shortages of fuel, medicine, and food, especially after the 2015 earthquake. UNICEF warned that millions of children were at risk of disease and death. The Indian blockade pushed Nepal into China’s lap. Nepal signed a fuel agreement with China to lessen its dependency on India, which put pressure on India to end the informal blockade. 

In 2020, Nepal officially adopted a new map that shows Indian territories of Kalapani, Limpiyadhura, and Lipulekh as part of Nepal. Nepalese currency is being printed by a Chinese firm, a nearly USD 17 million contract to China Banknote Printing and Minting Corporation (CBPMC),  utilizing advanced Chinese technology and lower costs, with the new bank notes featuring Nepal's new map that includes above-mentioned Indian territories.

The form of the new government in Nepal after the general elections, and how it pans out for India and the South Asian region, only time will show.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal)