Climate change is among the most urgent issues facing humanity and every passing year means less time remains to steer the world away from climate catastrophe. According to Climate Central, in the first six months of 2025, the US alone witnessed 14 climate disasters each costing a billion dollars, the Los Angeles wildfires being the most headline grabbing, with damages crossing US$ 60 billion. In the Caribbean, the record breaking Atlantic hurricane season produced Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm that devastated Jamaica, causing damage equivalent to 40% of the country’s GDP. In November, a series of overlapping tropical storms triggered catastrophic flooding and landslides across southeast Asia, leaving 1,500 dead and more than a million displaced. A report by the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found that India experienced extreme weather events on more than 90% of days in the first nine months of 2025.

Are Paris Targets Still Achievable?

Preliminary data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shows 2025 to be at least 1.4C above average pre-industrial era temperature, continuing the alarming trend of recent years. Indeed, some experts are pessimistic about the Paris Climate Agreement’s high ambition goal of 1.5C warming, calling for a pivot to the lower-ambition 2C warming goal. The difference between 1.5C and 2C may seem small but in reality involves  large scale ecological devastation and human tragedy. Unfortunately, even the 2C warming goal, beyond which “catastrophic” climate change is highly likely, may be at risk given the slow progress of global climate action. Meanwhile, total global GHG emissions, far from declining, continue to rise every year, including slightly above 1% in 2025.

Under the Paris Climate Agreement mechanism, every five years, each country is supposed to submit a more ambitious set of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), pledges and plans on climate action. In that sense, the 2025 Conference of Parties (COP) in Brazil was a pivotal moment in the context of disappointing trends. Yet, not all countries submitted NDCs in time, and many did not reflect significantly increased ambition. According to the 2025 UN Emissions Gap Report, if all countries fully implement their current commitments, warming would be in the range of 2.3-2.5C by the end of this century, well short of the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5-2C. It is worth noting that staying on the current pathway is projected to take us close to 3C warming by 2100, a sobering thought in the face of political pushback in important countries.

Consequences Of US Withdrawal

The US has consistently been a “climate laggard” in recent years, effectively giving cover to other laggards. But President Trump, elected on the back of a right-wing populist movement peddling conspiracy theories, has publicly called climate change a “hoax” and declared American withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. As a consequence, this throws the entire multilateral process in doubt, not to mention the financing commitments to developing countries. There may be a limit to what other major economies would unilaterally commit to, when a green transition imposes a disproportionate burden on their economies, in the absence of universal agreement that creates a level playing field.

Even before the dramatic US withdrawal, many observers had started questioning the value of these annual climate negotiations organized at massive scale with little to show for in terms of results. These calls found increasing resonance in 2025 in the absence of important leaders from China, India and the US at the summit in Brazil. Alternative directions being promoted by various commentators include less frequent but results-oriented meetings, smaller groupings led by “coalitions of the willing”, etc.; while others insist that defending the UN-based multilateral process is important for global solidarity.

Technology And Its Enabler Role

With international climate negotiations not delivering results, many have placed their faith in green technology for meeting climate goals, as adoption of green energy technologies have surged globally with falling costs. Solar, wind and other renewables overtook coal as the world's leading source of electricity this year, meeting nearly 100% of demand growth for electricity on aggregate. Much of this spectacular growth is driven by China, which has rapidly become a world leader in clean energy. Driven by this clean energy surge, China’s GHG emissions – the highest in the world – is for the first time showing signs of plateauing; and this year Beijing made a landmark pledge for an absolute reduction in GHG emissions by 2035.

These headlines, however, mask some uncomfortable truths behind the clean energy growth story. There is no certainty that such levels of growth will continue in all regions. In many countries, clean energy growth has plateaued, most notably in the US, where the Trump administration has started dismantling the climate and green energy policies of his predecessor. The transport sector remains another important source of concern. While EVs are booming in China, hitting 50% of new car sales, previous enthusiasm seems to be weakening among manufacturers and governments elsewhere. While American car companies are seen as responding to Trump’s anti-environmental policies, the European Union recently shocked the world by watering down its proposed ban on new combustion engine cars from 2035, after lobbying by European automobile giants.

Trade war And Future 

International trade wars, ushered in by Trump, have unfortunately started affecting the green energy transition. Since China has developed a virtual monopoly on a range of green technologies from solar panels to lithium batteries, western governments fear Chinese dominance over important economic sectors and are imposing trade restrictions, putting their own climate targets in doubt. In retaliation, China has used its stranglehold over rare earth minerals by imposing export controls, that are expected to hurt many critical sectors in the West, including green energy technologies.

The already difficult challenges of addressing climate change and enabling clean energy transition have become further complicated with the breakdown of multilateralism and emergence of divisive geopolitics in 2025. While there are some hopeful trends in clean energy adoption, the prospects for avoiding catastrophic climate change will recede further unless these negative trends are reversed in the short to medium term.

(The author is Professor of Environmental Studies, Jindal School of Liberal Arts & Humanities, views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at abhijit@jgu.edu.in. This series is curated by Prof Avinash Godbole and Prof Sreeradha Datta, JGU)