In the midst of the ongoing war in Iran, the UAE’s sudden announcement on April 28 to exit the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) adds to the global energy anxieties. Established in 1960 at the Baghdad conference by five oil-producing developing countries (Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela), OPEC aimed to coordinate the petroleum policies of its member states to ensure that they received stable returns for their products and counter the dominance of the Western multinational oil companies (often referred to as the Seven Sisters). UAE formally joined the OPEC cartel in 1967.

As stated by the Emirates News Agency-WAM, the decision to exit OPEC is in line with the UAE’s "long term strategic and economic vision" and aligns with the "evolving energy profile" of UAE’s technical adjustment towards "forward looking goal in the energy markets".  The decision reflects "Sovereign Responsibility in a New Energy Age". In the last few years, UAE has already reduced its dependence on oil consuming sectors and diversified its economy in various non-oil sectors like tourism, real estate, aviation, and financial services etc in the recent years. Now, these efforts can further flourish only when there are no limits on the oil production and supply. Leaving the OPEC cartel could provide UAE that flexibility and power.

Hence, seen from UAE’s perspective, this is not an act of abandonment or defiance, but a sovereign will to shape its future in the light of new geopolitical shifts. The decision, as it sounds, is neither dramatic nor does it give a sense of disengagement from the traditional trading partners of the cartel. Rather the very logic seems realistic; pivoting towards the emerging realities of the eastern markets rather than the transatlantic cold war economies of the past.

The China Factor in Energy Dynamics

Interestingly, one of the UAE’s growing consequential and strategic relationship is that with the China. In 2025 alone, China, has imported 692,000 barrels per day from the UAE, out of total daily exports of 3.17 million barrels, accounting for 6 per cent of China’s seaborne imports. In the last few years, China has infact posed itself as one of the consequential external variables in the global oil market. However, China’s approach towards the oil producing nations has not been homogenous; rather than engaging with the regional multilateral platforms for business, it has relied more on bilateral relationships. Hence, OPEC’s rules and regulations were never a major deciding factor in China’s energy strategy. China used tools like long-term contracts, and infrastructure investments (through BRI) to prioritize security, predictability, and strategic leverage in its bilateral engagements.

In this context UAE’s exit from the OPEC gives a sense of China’s deepening energy alignment and engagement. On one hand, exit from OPEC gives UAE a freedom to recalibrate its production capacity, prices, and direct investments with key buyers like China. On the other hand, the exit presents an opportunity for China to curate this oil relationship to match its economic and geopolitical goals. The exit suits the relative aspirations of both nations. UAE with its world-class port infrastructure, financial centers, and geographical position linking Asia, Africa, and Europe, is uniquely positioned to give a push to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This newfound independence of UAE makes it a perfect match for China’s preference for flexible bilateral relations over the rigid multilateral regional forums. This could also be viewed as an addition to Beijing’s deepening relations with the other powers in the Gulf like Saudi Arabia.

The eclectic bouquet of partners in the region helps Beijing in two ways - one, this effectively reduces Beijing’s energy overdependence and, second, it provides diplomatic leverage.  The evolving dynamics in the region give China an enough room to manoeuver in the fields of energy supplies and diplomatic positioning. UAE itself emerges as an assertive autonomous actor; pushing itself out of Saudi’s gravitational pull within the OPEC. This also sends a subtle message across the regional leadership and within the OPEC power dynamics. The move is also emblematic of middle power ambitions; seeking to navigate the multipolar world on their own terms.

Part of Broader Geopolitical Shift

Viewed from the lens of a sovereign nation taking step to shape its destiny, UAE’s exit is a part of the broader geopolitical shift. The 20th century realities that was reliant on stabilizing regional forums and cartels has given way to a world order that is fluid and decentralised, and calls for flexible relationships amongst the countries.

The contemporary world order is largely defined by strategic competition and overlapping global supply chains. So, while the earlier century belonged to the OPEC countries as the bargaining actors, the current century leverages energy networks. UAE’s decision to exit OPEC is a major step towards this strategic adaptability where China is a major and an active actor. But there remains a warning: decisions like that of UAE must be seen from a more nuanced position, keeping in mind Beijing’s larger geopolitical ambitions.

(The writer is an Assistant Professor (International Relations) in the Department of Humanities & Social Sciences at Jaypee Institute of Information Technology (JIIT), Noida, India. Views expressed are personal. She can be reached at ilacps@gmail.com)