A recent report by OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2025 predicts that by 2050 crude oil will overtake coal as India’s primary energy source. This suggests that India’s reliance on fossil fuels will remain high, albeit in a different form.

Targets and Progress

The Government of India has set an ambitious Viksit Bharat target for 2047—aiming to transform India into a developed nation. This aspiration entails rapid, wide-ranging development across multiple sectors, inevitably increasing energy and fuel demands.

Encouragingly, India has made commendable strides towards this goal and is today widely recognized as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

Emission Target

At a global climate summit, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. To realize this ambitious goal, India must drastically curtail and eventually eliminate the use of fossil fuels by that deadline.

Rising Fossil Fuel Consumption

Despite India’s efforts to boost non-fossil fuel energy sources such as solar and wind power, fossil fuel consumption continues to rise, driven by power generation and transportation needs:

• Coal: India’s coal production rose to approximately 1,047 million tonnes in 2024 from 997 million tonnes in 2023 (a 4.99% increase). Coal imports reached 243.62 million tonnes in FY 2024–25.

• Crude Oil: Imports rose by 4.2% to 242.4 million tonnes in 2024. With domestic production stagnant, dependency rose from 88.6% in March 2024 to 89.1% in March 2025.

• Natural Gas: LNG imports hit a record 27 million tonnes in 2024, a 20% year-on-year rise.

The continued use of coal and petroleum fuels releases harmful emissions such as sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and methane leaks during gas transportation. This growing dependence starkly contradicts India's 2070 net-zero ambitions.

Renewable Energy Development

India is actively expanding its renewable energy and battery storage capacity, alongside efforts to develop green hydrogen and promote electric vehicles (EVs) to cut emissions and reduce crude oil dependency.

As of June 2025, India’s total installed power capacity stood at 476 GW, with non-fossil fuel sources contributing 50%, a significant and commendable milestone. The country is expected to add 32 GW of renewable capacity this year alone.

However, carbon intensity in India’s power generation remains high—713 gCO₂ per kWh, compared to the global average of 480 gCO₂. Around 70% of India’s electricity is still generated using coal. Moreover, solar and wind energy have a capacity utilization of only ~20%, limiting their actual contribution to less than 30% of total power needs. With energy demand rising at 7% per annum, fossil fuels are expected to continue filling the gap.

The Transportation Challenge

Fuel consumption in India's automobile sector continues to rise:

• Petrol: Increasing at ~6.4% annually

• Diesel: Rising by ~2% annually

Although the government is aggressively promoting EV adoption, electric vehicles currently account for less than 8% of all vehicles. Moreover, electric trucks are facing challenges due to high costs and inadequate charging infrastructure, prompting a preference for CNG-powered trucks. Adding to the irony, much of the electricity used to charge EVs comes from fossil fuels—making this a self-defeating strategy.

India is also ramping up biofuel production, particularly ethanol. Biofuel output rose by 27% year-on-year, with ethanol blending gaining traction. However, the government has controversially resorted to using foodgrains like rice for ethanol production, raising concerns about food security. Even with increased biofuel production, it will likely only meet incremental demand growth, not replace petroleum entirely.

Green Hydrogen: Uncertain Future

India's National Green Hydrogen Mission aims to achieve 5 million tonnes of annual production by 2030, supported by ₹19,744 crore in funding. However, high production costs, technological gaps, and infrastructure limitations pose serious challenges. The future of the hydrogen economy in India remains uncertain.

Alternative Solutions 

1. Algae-Based Biofuel

Algae contain 20–25% oil and require only sunlight, CO₂, and minimal nutrients. Grown on wastelands with wastewater, algae biofuel avoids competition with food crops and could be a game-changer. Yet, this potential remains largely untapped by the government.

2. Jatropha

Once hailed as a solution for India’s energy woes, Jatropha was backed under the 2008 National Biofuel Policy. Though capable of yielding oil-rich seeds with minimal water on arid land, it was abandoned midstream without sustained follow through.

3. Sugar Beet

Sugar beet—widely cultivated in Europe and Russia—has a shorter cultivation cycle and lower water requirement than sugarcane, with comparable ethanol yields. Despite this, India has shown no strategic interest in sugar beet as a biofuel source.

4. Methanol from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

India imports over 3 million tonnes of methanol annually, typically derived from natural gas. Companies like Enerkem (Canada) have shown how methanol can be produced from MSW—a sustainable solution that also helps manage India’s growing urban waste crisis. But again, this remains unexplored at scale.

Beyond Conventional Strategies

Despite various programs—green hydrogen, EVs, biofuels—India’s fossil fuel consumption and import dependency are still growing. The current strategies appear insufficient to reverse this trend.

There is a critical need for out-of-the-box thinking. Many of the suggestions listed in this article have been repeatedly proposed by experts over the last decade but have failed to gain traction among top policymakers, often due to a lack of domain expertise in key decision-making roles.

India must look beyond conventional strategies if it truly seeks energy independence and emission reduction. Viable, innovative, and sustainable alternatives already exist—what is lacking is political will and policy continuity.

(The author is the founder-director of Nandini Consultancy Centre, offering business consultancy to the chemical and allied industries. He is also a current affairs commentator and a Trustee of the NGO Nandini Voice for the Deprived, Chennai. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at nsvenkatchennai@gmail.com.)