Ukraine war, the Gaza conflict and the Red Sea attacks are some of the manifestations of the new global order. The heightened profile of non-state actors in each of these theatres is seeing a prolonged and high-tech battle with proxies playing a major role. The global community must prepare themselves for a new phase of geostrategic realities. The conventional geopolitical tools for conflict resolution and strategic security means to dominate the adversary are no longer valid in the new scenario. The strategic dilemma originates from a geoeconomics recession on one end and excessive war-mongering on the other hand. The decline in the unipolar world order and the emergence of the multipolar power centers are fueling the non-state actors to run amok. The nation-states make declarations in multi-lateral forums and then support non-state actors to carry out the opposite. Rule-based global order seems to have become a fashionable term for building fake narratives.

The global commons, and in particular the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), are witnessing a massive escalation in the activities of the non-state actors. The combination of state and non-state actors, is a dangerous mix, as it spills over to geo-strategic, geo-political, and geo-economic aspects. The political and strategic dominance is one aspect, however the economic aspect impinges on the sustainability and climate change risk management issues. The non-state actors are not bound by any norms, so they can carry out any kind of economic activity on behalf of the nation-states, causing complete asymmetry in the ecosystem. 

The global community is increasingly looking at the oceans and water bodies for economic gains, however, the lack of transparency is making it extremely complicated to manage the implications in the long run. The humans know more about the outer space than the deep blue oceans. The blue-economic opportunities are extremely tempting for all the nations in the region and beyond; however, the illegal, unregulated and unreported extraction of underwater resources could become a catastrophe in the foreseeable future.

Looming underwater threats

The drone attacks in the Arabian Sea recently are an indication of the high-tech means available to the non-state actors and it won’t take much time for them to acquire deadly underwater drones with explosives to carry out unimaginable attacks in a politically volatile IOR. The military-industry complex is on an overdrive to make sure the economic gap is bridged through an aggressive supply of their consignments. When the nation-states are not able to purchase these high-cost items in the post-pandemic scenario, the non-state actors are being used to find an alternative. The asymmetry ensured by the non-state actors has become an attractive proposition for extra-regional powers to use them as their regular proxies. The failed states have become the breeding grounds for the non-state actors. The growing assets in the maritime domain are increasingly becoming vulnerable to these developments.

The 9/11 & 26/11 incidents will see their underwater versions in the next round. The 9/11 & the 26/11 incidents were the major triggers for developing the Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) globally. However, the MDA remained a security-driven formulation that could not penetrate beyond the surface. This form of MDA has been highly limited and remained more of a rhetoric than any practical significance. MDA without any underwater component means nothing. The major threats in the future are likely to originate from the underwater and the security establishment will never be able to counter these high-tech threats with their limited budget. Underwater surveillance and monitoring require acoustic means of a different level, particularly in tropical waters. Acoustic capacity and capability building have to be prioritized. 

The Global South will always struggle with the security budget to develop such state-of-the-art acoustic capacity and capability building; thus forever they remain dependent on the West for guidance. Acoustic capacity and capability building will enable them to over the tropical challenges, which can be used for a sustainable blue economy, Climate Change Risk Management, and also Digital Transformation for Good Governance.

Need to develop UDA capabilities

Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) is the key to managing the specific challenges and opportunities in the tropical waters of the IOR and beyond. The entire Indo-Pacific strategic space by definition is the tropical waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The West developed its UDA capabilities during the Cold War era for the temperate and polar waters of the Greenland Iceland United Kingdom (GIUK) gap. These systems require massive customization for the tropical waters and the degradation of performance is of the order of 60 per cent, making them completely redundant.

Tropical waters have massive amounts of resources in terms of biodiversity and undersea mineral resources; however, they are not able to contribute towards economic growth, due to a lack of effective UDA. These nations are only the victims of natural disasters and sustainability concerns. Such ground realities only generate frustrations among the young and aspirational population. The IOR boasts of a unique demography; however, these young energies are not getting channelized in the right direction.

The UDA framework, as shown in the figure above, can ensure nuanced policy and technology interventions along with acoustic capacity and capability building for the tropical waters of the IOR and beyond. The pooling of resources and synergizing of efforts will ensure the optimization of resources across the four stakeholders. The demographic bulge will be channelized through skilling and knowledge initiatives, rooted in the local site-specific traditional practices. The digital transformation in the underwater domain through the much-talked-about Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) manifestation will ensure good governance. MSP realization can only be possible through the effective implementation of the UDA framework. The UDA framework serves both the marine as well as the freshwater systems. The non-state actors and their handlers will be exposed to an enhanced UDA initiative in the IOR. Prioritizing the UDA framework is a no-brainer, for a universe that has 75 per cent water cover, including 5 per cent freshwater.

ndia has a role to play in this new global order. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already announced the SAGAR vision, which talks about both security and growth at the same level. However, the realization of the SAGAR vision is impossible without the effective implementation of the UDA framework. Regional partners like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, with high population density, will be able to leverage their tropical advantage with enhanced digital transformation backed by the UDA framework. Multilateral platforms like IORA, BIMSTEC, IOC and others have to prioritize the UDA framework to achieve any meaningful outcomes of their partnerships.

(The author is founder & director Maritime Research Center, Pune. Views are personal. He can be reached at director.mrc@foundationforuda.in)