Since the end of the second world war, the United Kingdom has been regarded as America’s “little brother”, a close ally through the Cold War and beyond, with shared interests and a strong transatlantic alliance. However, with the rise of new geopolitical tensions and a shift in economic power toward Asia, the Trump administration has shown signs of moving its focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. In this new landscape, New Delhi has emerged as a crucial ally for the United States, particularly in terms of countering China’s influence and establishing a balance of power in Asia. As a result, India and its Prime Minister Narendra Modi are now at the forefront of America’s foreign policy, poised to receive significant backing from Washington as Trump’s administration moves to secure American interests in this increasingly vital part of the world.

Modi rapport would influence South Asia policy

Donald Trump’s foreign policy in 2017 already hinted at his interest in a more assertive Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), deviating from the previous administration’s Europe-centric approach. While maintaining traditional ties with NATO, Trump prioritized building alliances in Asia, motivated by his focus on countering China’s economic expansion and geopolitical influence. Unlike previous American leaders, Trump’s stance was clear and uncompromising—China was not only a competitor but a threat to US dominance, both economically and militarily.

One unique factor in Trump’s policy shift would be his personal rapport with Modi. The two leaders share an ideological affinity, particularly in their approach to nationalism and economic self-reliance. Trump's administration is likely to see numerous influential positions occupied by individuals of Indian descent, strengthening this South Asian alliance. India’s geographic and economic significance, coupled with the Bay of Bengal’s vast mineral wealth, provides a strategic advantage for the US in exerting influence across the region. By aligning more closely with India, Trump had sought to establish a powerful counterbalance to China in the Indian Ocean and beyond.

Indo-Pacific Strategy and "America First" :

Trump’s “America First” policy fundamentally reshaped US foreign policy to emphasize domestic economic interests. The Indo-Pacific region, through which around 70% of global trade flows, became crucial to this agenda. As a key player in securing international sea lanes, India emerged as a valuable ally for the United States. With a strong naval presence in the Indian Ocean, India will be the US's main partner of its influence in the region to counter a massive Chinese military presence in South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

Under Trump, this partnership with India was expected to deepen as Washington viewed New Delhi as a vital anchor for security and stability in Asia. Trump’s second term would likely be more assertive than his previous “soft” approach, with increased American support for India in military and strategic sectors. For both countries, this partnership holds the potential to act as a substantial deterrent to China’s geopolitical ambitions and solidify the US-India alliance as a cornerstone of the Indo-Pacific strategy.

Bangladesh's future could be affected

Trump’s reelection, however, would create ripples in the South Asian political landscape, particularly for Bangladesh. While some analysts claim that a second Trump presidency would have minimal impact on Dhaka-Washington relations, there are clear indications that such assumptions could be grossly wrong.

In 2016, a meeting between Trump and a group of Bangladeshi Americans got a glimpse of his sharp memory of Bangladesh’s political dynamics. Trump’s awareness of Muhammad Yunus, who is heading Bangladesh's interim government and known to be one of the top beneficiaries of Hillary's family enterprise, the Clinton Foundation, reflects his awareness about those who are considered closer to his political opponents. Given his longstanding feud with the Clintons, Obamas, and George Soros, Trump may view any entity associated with them with suspicion or hostility. According to some media reports, Hillary and her husband Bill Clinton also are involved with Yunus’s business ventures such as Grameen America.

This ideological stance could have direct consequences for Bangladesh, particularly if Trump decides to impose economic penalties. In 2017, he placed several nations on a trade blacklist; a similar move against Bangladesh, involving punitive tariffs on exports, could severely impact its economy, particularly the ready-made garment (RMG) sector, which is vital to the country’s financial stability. Trump's strategic motivations would likely involve promoting a pro-American government in Dhaka, with Modi playing a role in shaping Bangladesh’s political future. This could open up avenues for joint Indo-US ventures in Bangladesh, possibly even enabling American companies to facilitate energy projects connecting Nepal’s hydropower resources through India to Bangladesh.

Trump may have different approach to Myanmar

Under the Biden administration, the US demonstrated a consistent commitment to providing humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh, particularly in support of the Rohingya crisis. Trump, on the other hand, may adopt a different stance, prioritizing economic goals over humanitarian aid. Trump’s rigid stance on immigration and skepticism towards international humanitarian efforts may also impact the future of the Rohingya crisis, as Yunus’ aspirations for relocating the refugees to third countries may receive no support from a Trump administration and certainly not from the US.

Additionally, Hindu nationalist lobbyists have been seemingly vocal in shaping Trump's perceptions of the political and religious landscape in Bangladesh. If Trump were to be influenced by these narratives, his administration could adopt a critical stance towards the Bangladeshi government regarding religious freedom.

Trump’s administration may also seek to forge alliances with non-state actors like the Arakan Army in Myanmar, potentially enabling support for the creation of a Christian state in the South Asian region. Such developments could have destabilizing consequences for Bangladesh, potentially drawing it deeper into the complex interplay of regional politics and US strategic interests.

India will emerge as key regional player    

As the global geopolitical landscape shifts, so too does America’s focus, with the Indo-Pacific region taking on newfound importance in the US foreign policy. Trump’s presidency marked a clear realignment from a Europe-centric approach to one that positions South Asia, particularly India, as a critical partner. While the UK has long been America’s “little brother”, Trump’s pivot towards Asia signals that this role may well be passed on to India. Modi’s leadership aligns well with Trump’s nationalist priorities, fostering a bond based on mutual interest and strategic alignment. In the context of balancing China’s growing power, India’s position as an emerging power and key regional player grants its unprecedented influence in Washington’s strategic calculus.

The US-India relationship, characterized by both military collaboration and economic synergy, is a powerful counterweight to China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s policies have set the stage for a new chapter in US-South Asia relations, where India is not only a friend but a partner in safeguarding stability and promoting mutual prosperity across the region.  

(The author is a political and strategic analyst based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at writetomahossain@gmail.com)