However, execution will determine whether Modi’s second GST gamble succeeds. Missteps could mean fiscal slippage, strained centre–state relations and political blowback in a crucial election cycle. What is being promoted as a festive bonanza risks being remembered as another midnight reform whose lofty promise faltered in practice.

The most probable outcome in Tianjin is what one Indian diplomat called a “tactical pause.” A cooling of tensions, a resumption of some economic and security dialogues, perhaps even a roadmap for regular high-level contact. That would be enough to stabilise the border and signal to Washington that India has options.

The unintended winner in this drama may well be China. Not just because Modi plans to travel to Beijing. If the trade standoff continues, Indian exporters—particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and jewelry—will lose market share to Chinese and Vietnamese rivals, not to speak of South Asian rivals…

The Middle East’s volatility is not an outlier—it’s a feature of the emerging global order. India’s challenge is to anticipate these tectonic shifts and act with strategic foresight, not just tactical response. Energy security, export competitiveness, and supply chain resilience must now be treated as interlinked pillars of national power.…

After all, If India can do more than $100 billion worth of business with China, with which it is now involved in a far more complex border dispute and naval rivalry, then we can at least do business with our next-door neighbours and let consumers have a greater choice.