Well over three months since the launch of hostilities, which keep threatening to flare up in West Asia, the world is watching how those who fuelled the aggression appear to be caught in an impasse from which there is no easy way out and which their egos, perhaps even more than their strategic imperatives, refuse to let go.

US President Donald Trump has, during this period, repeatedly swayed from diabolical threats to ceasing active hostilities to holding out hopes for a peaceful settlement of the crisis, and back again, while Iran’s new leadership has chosen to remain in the shadows while making clear that they do not trust the United States and will accept a settlement primarily on their own terms. The rest of the world, sliding into an energy crisis, watches as each country struggles to cope.

The prolonged hostilities are hammering the global economy, which had barely begun to overcome the Covid crisis, with no happy ending in sight. For India, seriously dependent on fuel imports, the fallout on the economic situation has become grim enough to warrant an appeal by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for initiation of austerity measures.

Global Economy on Fire, Poor Badly Hit

It is a different matter that people, after the Covid austerity years, appear somewhat sceptical of government appeals, especially when not practiced by those in authority. There is, however, no doubt that India’s economic parameters are in a mess, with exports falling, imports rising and the rupee in a downward spiral. The war is now hitting the common man the world over, from Agartala to Surat and Colombo, Coimbatore and Comilla to Mumbai, Manila and distant Minnesota.

Even more grim, precious lives are being lost, mostly of innocents caught in the deadly cross-fire in countries which are not even parties to the war. Scarcity of cooking fuel are pushing people, particularly across South Asia, toward hunger. Livelihoods have been lost among the large unorganised labour force while thousands of self-employed street vendors, smaller restaurants and eateries are being forced to close shop, facing a scary, insecure future. For middle class households across India, everyday snacks like the samosa or dosa have become scarce because of shortage and high prices of of cooking gas cylinders.

For those worst hit, it is difficult to comprehend that this phase of contending with hunger and deprivation is because some old men in distant lands decided they did not like the nature of a particular country’s leadership.

It is apparent that President Trump did not expect the war against Iran, which he launched along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to last this long. His idea was to launch a blitzkrieg against Iran’s defence and nuclear facilities and, having removed the top leadership there the first night, expect the Iranian people to rise in support of the US saviour. That did not happen.

While ordinary Iranians face death and devastation, the remains of the country’s leadership have retaliated against the aggressor in an unprecedented and targeted exercise to optimise their advantages. The collateral damage has set the global economy on fire and sent fuel prices skyrocketing and wreaked severe damage across West Asia and beyond. Additionally, the uncertainty of when, or indeed if, hostilities will cease is straining international relations.

Lack of Unity in BRICS

For India, at every level, the situation has been fraught. From the policy perspective, images of Modi hugging Netanyahu in Israel the morning before the attacks against Iran happened did not convey the image of the neutral arbiter. Despite a call to cease hostilities, India’s initial reactions to the war appeared to dispel any semblance of bipartisanship in global conflicts and seriously undermined its credibility as a neutral umpire. In fact, it appeared to have ceded that position to Pakistan, which appeared favoured by both Washington and Tehran.

The recent BRICS foreign ministers’ conference in New Delhi, chaired by India, displayed further erosion in India’s moral authority and a lack of unity, or even cohesion, within the group. A joint statement could not be issued because of divergences between Iran and the UAE, both now members of the expanded BRICS group. As Chair, India’s statement was a mere summary of the discussions held, outlining the lack of agreement on initiatives to end current wars, including the West Asia conflict and Russia–Ukraine hostilities. Russia is among the original founder members of BRICS.

Iran is a close neighbour with which India has civilizational ties and shared strategic interests, most recently in Chabahar port, yet India opted for silence against the aggression even when Tehran urged New Delhi, as chair of the BRICS group, to condemn the aggression and targeting of its leadership.

Perceived Erosion of Authority

Other than generic statements seeking a cease fire and resumption of negotiations, Modi has not publicly told his friends in Tel Aviv and Washington to end the war, although Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has been urged to cease and desist from targeting other countries. It is fortunate that Iran’s current leadership has chosen to stand by the people of India and allow the passage of Indian vessels through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, thereby easing some of the government’s fuel procurement worries.

West Asia and the Persian Gulf is of critical importance to India. Nearly 10 million Indians live in the region, separated from the homeland only by the Arabian Sea, and send home close to USD 50 billion annually, or over 35% of India’s inward remittances. In 2025, the total remittances from the Indian diaspora totalled USD 135 billion, around 4% of India’s GDP. These contributions exceeded foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and amounted to over 40% of India’s trade deficit. According to The Economist, around 38% of the amount sent by Indian citizens overseas comes from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, six countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. The region is vital for India’s trade, energy security and strategic interests.

New Delhi has been reaching out to all the leaders concerned and PM Modi has visited the UAE, which he called his “second home”, to seek continued investment and energy inflows. Abu Dhabi has consented to assist with India’s strategic fuel reserves.

However, the erosion and diminution of its global authority has been starkly exposed in a region where India has worked very hard in recent decades to gain trust and goodwill and shore up critical strategic interests.

(The writer is a senior Indian journalist and analyst. Views expressed are personal. She can be reached at nilovarc@gmail.com)