South Asia is one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world. The devastating floods in Feni, Bangladesh, in 2024, the deadly floods in India’s Assam this year, and the sudden flash flood in Nepal’s Bhotekoshi River valley just this week point to the same reality that from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal, climate-related disasters are becoming harder to predict and manage. 

The disasters highlight why a response post-crisis is no longer sufficient. South Asia must prepare for disasters before they happen. This is where Artificial Intelligence (AI) can change the face of climate security. 

For a long time in this region, disaster management has mostly been reactive. It mainly focuses on rescue, relief, and rebuilding after a disaster hits. But recently, the rise of AI has begun to change how disasters are managed, shifting the focus from responding after a disaster to forecasting risks and preparing before they strike. In this case, machine learning and GeoAI can study satellite images, population data, weather patterns, and river flow. From this, they can now find out easily which areas and which people are most at risk. 

Since 2018, Google has worked with Bangladesh's Water Development Board and India's Central Water Commission on an AI flood-forecasting system. This system now sends warnings to more than 40 to 200 million people in both Bangladesh and India. Now the question pattern is changing. It is no longer just “What do we do after a disaster?” It is now “Where, and for whom, should we prepare before a disaster happens?”

AI as Early Warning System

The real value of AI is in predicting not only disasters, but also helping people to prepare for them before they occur. Early warning can provide authorities with time to set up shelters, food, and medicine, and give people enough time to safeguard crops, animals, and possessions. But here AI can go further by using anonymized mobile-phone data to track how people move after a disaster. 

This analysis of the aggregated location data can help answer questions such as where people are gathering, what route they are taking, and where the space is going. This can indicate the movement of affected individuals and where that help is most needed, unlike weather agencies, which warn of a flood coming. This may help to make AI more local, more responsive, and more useful for security in climate change. But this raises an important question: “Does AI protect everyone equally?”

Need for Accurate Data Sharing

But the main fact is that AI’s accuracy relies heavily on the data behind it. On the other hand, in many remote and marginalized areas of South Asia, internet access is still limited, and population data is often incomplete or outdated. However, this does not mean that these communities are less at risk from climate change or are better protected. Moreover, in many cases, they are among the least visible in data systems, and the most exposed to climate-related disasters. As a result, AI risk models may fail to identify the very people who need help the most. 

AI can only “see” what it has data on, which may raise issues of inclusion and exclusion. It also raises concerns about accountability and dependence on technology. Excessive or insufficient warnings can result in misjudgments, and countries with lower AI capacity can use external data and models. At the same time, using location and movement data to track climate-related displacement can create privacy and surveillance risks. 

In South Asia, there is still no clarity about these issues. But in practice, AI needs supervision, clear predictions, and involvement from the community. People in charge should be responsible for decisions made by AI, and predictions should clearly show how uncertain they are.  Because AI should be used to assist in making decisions, not to make decisions for you. 

Whither Trans-Border Cooperation?

On the other hand, AI can assist beyond national borders. South Asia’s climate risks are shared across countries. Rivers such as the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus do not respect national boundaries, and torrential rains in one country can lead to floods in another. Satellite data, flood forecasts and flood warnings could, therefore, be shared to enhance disaster preparedness across the region. 

But technology alone cannot solve political tensions. India-Pakistan relations are complex, particularly since India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in April 2025 after the attack in Pahalgam. There are also ongoing water dispute issues in India and Bangladesh, such as the Teesta issue. 

Meanwhile, India has more capabilities in terms of satellites and artificial intelligence than some of its neighbours. The challenge, then, is to develop regional cooperation without fostering a new dependency on the most technologically advanced country. 

Cooperation between governments in South Asia requires power-sharing AI. Every nation should retain control over its own data, AI systems, and institutions, while exchanging valuable information regarding floods, cyclones, droughts, and joint rivers. This may start with collaboration on smaller practical issues, rather than waiting for larger political disagreements to be settled. 

Instead of creating a new institution, cooperation could work through an existing body such as BIMSTEC’s disaster management system. The secretariat could rotate among member states so that no single country controls the data.  Early-warning systems should be standardized, and flood and river flow data should be shared to build a solid base for regional disaster preparedness. 

Finally, the power of AI is not merely in the ability to make predictions quickly. It has real value in enabling South Asia to transition from disaster response to climate risk management. However, such a change is only possible if the technology remains clear, transparent, and accountable to all. Borders are not a barrier to climate disasters. So, we should not restrict our efforts to prepare for them within the boundaries.  

(The author is a researcher and currently pursuing her M.S.S. and holds a B.S.S. from the Department of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Bangladesh. She is the champion of the National Policy Competition 2025, organized by the Ministry of Youth and Sports, Bangladesh. The views expressed are personal. She can be contacted at shamorita.barua14@gmail.com )