One of the most striking features of South Asian trade is how little the region trades internally. Intra-regional trade within South Asia remains among the lowest in the world relative to geographic proximity. Political tensions — especially between India and Pakistan — have prevented the emergence of a deeply integrated regional production system comparable to ASEAN or the European Union. This is a major missed opportunity.
Scarcity of cooking fuel is pushing people, particularly across South Asia, toward hunger. Livelihoods have been lost among the large unorganised labour force while thousands of self-employed street vendors, smaller restaurants and eateries are being forced to close shop, facing a scary, insecure future. For middle class households across India, everyday snacks like the samosa or dosa have become scarce because of shortage and high prices of cooking gas cylinders.
India is one of the world’s largest suppliers of generic medicines and APIs to Europe. If the EU begins favouring “Made in EU” pharmaceutical production through procurement preferences, subsidies or state aid, Indian drug manufacturers could face reduced access to EU public procurement contracts and tougher supply-chain resilience requirements.
India’s pharma export market has been affected as India supplies medicines to more than 200 countries. Supply chain interruption not only hurts Indian producers but also creates medicine scarcity in the US, UK, and African markets that highly depend on Indian generics. From the logistics end, re-routing of cargo away from conflict-ridden corridors such as the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has increased freight insurance premiums, distressing Indian exporters who function on lean cost structures.
As part of the greater strategic pitch, the Indo-Pacific is likely to witness heightened competition among major powers, with alliances and partnerships playing a critical role. Economic initiatives are expected to intertwine with strategic goals, as seen in projects like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).Regional forums like ASEAN, the East Asia Summit (EAS), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) will remain vital for dialogue and stability.
Many rising powers including India, which the US is counting on along with Japan, Australia, South Korea to deal with China in the Indo-Pacific, have robust and strong commercial ties with China which they can not easily jeopardize only because the US feels threatened by the rise of China. Even the European Union is economically entrenched with China and the EU would not upset China beyond a certain threshold.
One such opportunity lies in the realm of electric vehicles (EVs). Both India and China are on the cusp of transformative shifts in transportation, and the adoption of EVs could play a pivotal role in sustainable development and poverty alleviation in India. As India considers domestic EV manufacturing in collaboration with Chinese companies such as BYD, Leapmotor, and NIO, the potential for job creation, trade, and technology transfer is enormous. Chinese expertise in EV technology could help India meet its ambitious environmental goals while bolstering economic growth.
In such a scenario, closer engagement with Beijing, does not mean that New Delhi needs to abandon its call for open sea lanes and unhindered movement through the South China Seas, or its support to QUAD, or participate in the naval exercises in the Pacific, or disown His Holiness the Dalai Lama, or break trade and other contacts with Taiwan, to name a few. Each is critical to crafting India's foreign and security policy towards China, the ASEAN, and the Indo-Pacific.
Trump's strategic motivations would likely involve promoting a pro-American government in Dhaka, with Modi playing a role in shaping Bangladesh’s political future. This could open up avenues for joint Indo-US ventures in Bangladesh, possibly even enabling American companies to facilitate energy projects connecting Nepal’s hydropower resources through India to Bangladesh.
China has sought to grab this crucial mining opportunity due to the absence of major power competition in Afghanistan. Beijing's previous efforts were foiled but currently it is the only major power willing to make a bet on the Taliban government. In 2023, the official mining deal was signed between Afghan Deputy PM for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar and Chinese Ambassador Zhao Xing. Both view this project as the start of a new era of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.
Oli is scheduled to China after November 15. The primary discussion will likely be on speeding up the BRI as well as economic cooperation between the two nations. Beijing will do its best to draw Nepal deeper into its strategic sphere and further a joint approach in dealing with India to further China’s national interests.
It is not possible for India to follow the China model of governance of less political freedom and more economic freedom. Yet, the present government may be well advised to implement pending reforms like land, labor, and judicial at the earliest.
The debt problem facing Tonga sheds light on the intricate nature of economic reliance and the broader geopolitical landscape in the South Pacific. Concerns regarding geopolitical control in a strategically significant region and the sustainability of debt have been highlighted by China's growing influence, not just in the region but beyond stretching to South Asia
This visit was strategically important for both the US and Bangladesh. For the US, it was an opportunity to solidify its presence in South Asia at a time when the region is becoming increasingly important in the broader context of US-China competition. Bangladesh, situated at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, plays a crucial role in the Indo-Pacific region.
India’s ties with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan which have grown in recent years have become even more important in the context of the current geopolitical and economic situation in the Indo-Pacific. India would also want to be one of the beneficiaries of the China+1 strategy being followed by many companies in East Asia.
The evolving Indo-Pacific strategy, led by the United States, has added a new layer of complexity to the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean. As the U.S. and its allies seek to counter China's influence in the region, India has emerged as a key partner in this strategic framework. However, this realignment has implications for regional stability, particularly for Pakistan
Quad does create an overarching arc of stability in the region, checking the expansion capacity of Beijing, which will in turn boost India’s regional ambitions that are mutually aligned with the Quad’s objectives.
Modi marked a new chapter in his strategic geopolitical moves over the past few months since the start of his third term with visits to the region and to Ukraine. All these marked a new frontier for India’s power projection while sending a clear message to allies and adversaries that New Delhi has its own bargaining chips in pursuance of its strategic neutrality while ensuring the best returns for its national security and international interests.
