India and the US share common interests and concerns in the Central Asian Republics (CARs). Following the intervention in Afghanistan by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), the focus has particularly been on transnational threats and challenges, and geo-political and geo-economic adjustments in this region.

Transnational challenges include terrorism, extremism, drug and arms trafficking, ecological security and protection of the environment. It is important to note that changes in the means of transportation, communication and technology can play an important role in facilitating global access for the Central Asian region.

Geopolitical location and geographical conditions have an important role to play in drug trafficking, arms smuggling and organised crimes that have become important transnational security threats. Drugs dealers, who were earlier trading from Afghanistan with coverage across South Asia, have now found clientele in Russia and Europe.

Transnational migration, transportation and the use of ethnic affiliations for drug trade due to trust factor ensures that the drug and arms trade flourish. Drug trafficking constitute one of the largest sources of illegal proceeds as they create strong financial base for terrorist organisations to conduct illegal traffic in arms. Such non-state actors have transnational ties, creating movements trespassing state borders and therefore requires consolidated inter-regional and international approaches.

There are also concerns about the rise of Islamic extremism in the region due to the close proximity with Afghanistan and Pakistan; social vacuum created by ethnic and identity issues amongst the Central Asians which will be filled by religious identities; authoritarian governments that can give rise to resistance by ethnic groups uniting and getting international support under the common banner of religion; lack of political experience and willingness for political, administrative and economic accommodation amongst the leaders; and economic constraints leading to exploitation of youth by religious fanatics.

The economic prospects for India and US in CARs include natural resources such as uranium, gold copper, diamond and other rare minerals. Energy potential is other priority areas where It is estimated that each year the energy consumption of India is likely to increase by 5% and US about 9%. India and the US seek its access to meet their domestic requirements and contain Chinese. The huge reserve of oil and natural gas can provide an alternative for the fast depleting resources in the rest of the world and reduce dependence on West Asian oil supplies.

The "oil route" to India includes Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI). The prospects of this pipeline, however, are bleak due to instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Kazakhstan, although has huge oil and gas reserves, remains physically distant. Poor quality of gas and technological challenges makes access difficult. Nevertheless, it is in the interest of India to bid its stakes in order to have a say in international oil politics.

US interest in CARs is to establish itself as a counter to Russian and Chinese dominance in the region. However, China has managed to establish its firm economic grip in the entire region, much against US and India’s interest. Nonetheless, it may be noted that China is treated with suspicion in the region and viewed as an expansionist. Russia though still holds a special position in the CAR’s, feels uneasy by the aggressive presence of China.

In fact, India can play an important role in neutralising the US, Russia and Chinese competing positions in CARs as India and Russia continues to enjoy historical, strategic and friendly ties since India’s total defence purchase from Russia accounts to approximately 75% of its total imports. In 1990s, Russia desired for active involvement of India in the CARs which led to India's military cooperation in Tajikistan; cooperation in the project on north-south corridor; and joint exploration of oil and natural gas in Central Asia. At the same time, it is unlikely that India and the US can act as a potential competitor to China due to physical and psychological distance, limited market and endemic corruption that have prevented private businessmen to invest or explore Central Asian market.

It is also important to note that although Pakistan's international image of harboring terrorism has prevented it from finding a gateway to Central Asia, it is likely that in a long run Pakistan can have an edge over India as it can provide access to landlocked CARs with its ports through Karakoram highway and can cleverly play a pan-Islamic card. 

Pakistan's involvement in Central Asia’s southern neighbourhood is a continuation of Zia-ul Haq's policy of creating a 'zone of strategic depth' that will include Central Asia, Afghanistan and Kashmir. These policies are aimed to bring the region under Islamabad's command and to find a gateway to Central Asia for economic, strategic and religious purposes.

India shares deep historical ties with the CARs. It was one of the four countries having an embassy in Central Asia during the Soviet times and presently India is regarded as a "soft power" due to its economic and technological assistance through Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation. However, New Delhi has not been able to establish itself firmly in the region as it has always remained away from internal political and cultural developments.

The economic and cultural engagements remain limited at inter-governmental level. Thus, in order to enhance its economic interest in the region, India needs to work towards the revival of Silk Route. CARs also lack manpower resources that can be filled in by India’s readily available manpower resource. The only handicap here is that of language.

In the post-Soviet era, although US started its bilateral relations with the CAR’s at a positive note, it could not maintain its goodwill particularly after the Orange Revolution (2004-2005) Georgia; Andijon carnage (2005) Uzbekistan and the Tulip Revolution (2005) Kyrgyzstan, where US was accused of being involved in financing and supporting the uprising against the government.

To conclude, both India and the US would like to see the establishment of human rights; democracy; press freedom; promotion of civil rights; and political, social and economic stability in the region in order to prevent ascendance of separatist and extremist activities. However, India has higher stakes in the Central Asia as instability in CARs can have its "dominos effect" on South Asian security.

In order to be a global player, India needs to develop multiple strategies for security and economic cooperation. India must also remain economically, technically and culturally engaged in the region through inter-governmental agreements and regional organisation. However, the US needs to look beyond the "war on terrorism" and provide financial assistance for the development of infrastructures and become keenly engaged research and exploration based projects. It must work with the regional governments in order to achieve goodwill in the longer term.

*****

Dr.Mansi Mehrotra is Associate Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, and can be contacted at mansime@gmail.com.