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:: Opinion : Gurmeet Kanwal |
India-Iran Relations: Strategic Stalemate
Iran recently celebrated the 30th anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamic Revolution
Hard-line Islamist Regime
Iran's commanding location on the trade routes of the northern Indian Ocean region, including the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, its shared sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz that provides a vital passage for the export of the region's oil wealth, the gateway that it provides to land-locked Afghanistan, the Central Asian Republics and Russia (through Turkmenistan) and its shoreline on the Caspian Sea, imbue Iran with immense strategic significance. The Persian civilisation has historically provided a crucial link on the strategic crossroads between West Asia, South Asia and Central Asia. However, the ongoing wars in Iraq to Iran's west and in Afghanistan to its east have disrupted that link. Iran itself has also contributed in some measure to the regional instability that now prevails.
In any war, India's conventional superiority will prevail
The Pakistan government has failed to respond satisfactorily to India's demands to convincingly end terrorism emanating from its soil and to hand over terrorist leaders and fugitives from Indian justice. Though both governments have toned down the political rhetoric and war clouds are no longer hovering on the horizon, the palpable anger of the people after the terror attacks on Mumbai has not been assuaged and a future conflict with Pakistan remains a possibility.
Pakistan's nuclear forces: a gradual consolidation
Unlike India's nuclear weapons and missile development programme that was completely indigenous, Pakistan received considerable external help and, in turn, has itself been a proliferator. Pakistan's nuclear weapons - warheads and delivery systems - are India-centric and have been acquired with Chinese and North Korean help. While India follows a "credible minimum deterrence" doctrine and has declared a "no first use" policy, Pakistan follows a "first use" nuclear doctrine and seeks to convince India that it has a low nuclear threshold.
Ugly Stability: Failing to Read the Danger Signals in Kashmir
Jammu and Kashmir is on the boil again and this time India mostly has its own sectarian politics to blame for the steadily deepening crisis. The informal cease-fire on the Line of Control (LoC), which had held up fairly well November 25, 2003, through a tortuously slow rapprochement process, has been repeatedly violated by the Pakistan army in recent weeks and there have been casualties on both the sides.
IPI pipeline a good option - but a security nightmare
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmud Qureshi said after a visit to New Delhi last month that most of the outstanding differences on the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline had been resolved and that the three countries were now in a position to reach final agreement at the next round of joint talks. In order to allay India's apprehensions, Qureshi also conveyed Pakistan's offer to guarantee the physical security of the gas pipeline.
Peace in Kashmir: Signs of Hope on the Horizon
Despite sporadic incidents of violence and occasional encounters between the security forces and terrorists, militarily the situation in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is now better than it has been since insurgency first reared its ugly head in 1989. A sense of normalcy has returned to the Kashmir Valley with schools, colleges and hospitals open, commerce flourishing and tourists thronging the scenic spots. Over three lakh pilgrims completed the Amarnath Yatra in 2007. Janmashtmi and Dussehra were celebrated with traditional fervour after almost two decades. In the Jammu region too violence is at low ebb.
Pakistan's Proxy War in Kashmir: Is there Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Pakistan's game plan to pursue reconciliation with India is merely a tactical ploy. Its proxy war will go on because the Pakistan army will not allow Musharraf to change its fundamental policy towards India. Hence, lasting peace in Kashmir is still a distant dream.
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