The total number of casualty figures in terror-related violence in Northeast India in the past year has been considerably high. It exceeds other conflict zones such as Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Naxal-affected areas in rest of India. Among the militancy inflicted states in the region, violence has increased in Assam, Manipur and Nagaland. At the same time, it has been reducing in places like Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura. In fact, Assam has become the most sensitive state with highest rate of causalities including civilians, security forces (SF) and militants.

Assam was ripped by about 66 bomb blasts in 2007 and its number of insurgent-related fatalities in the year was 437 including 149 insurgent, 269 civilians and 19 SFs (where it was 413 in 2006 and 174 in 2005). In January, the most active outfit in the region, United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) launched a violent campaign against Hindi speaking people during which many migrant labourers from Bihar and adjoining places were killed. It was also a month when the outfit tried to gain its maximum momentum by carrying out highest number of bomb blasts (There were 27 bomb blasts in January alone while less than 10 were triggered in each of the other months). The outfit was also blamed for creating deadly ethnic clashes in Karbi Anglong district. Apart from ULFA, other outfits such as Muslim United Liberation Tiger of Assam (MULTA), All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF), Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), Dima Halim Daogah (DHD) and its faction Black Widow (BW) were believed to be involved in violent activities (NDFB and DHD are having ceasefire agreement with the central government).

Nonetheless, to control the increasing militant menace, security forces launched well-coordinated operations such as Operation Rino-II, Operation Blazing Khukri and Operation Blooming Orchid. They recovered a large cache of weapons; and killed or arrested many militants. Interestingly, frequent reports on Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and arrest of its agents in the state came up in the same year. Subsequently, in December, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Assam unit and All Assam Student's Union (ASSU) office in Guwahati received threats from Al Qaeda

Militancy-related deaths in Manipur in 2007 have been the highest in the casualty record of the past few years. It is next to Assam with the death toll being around 408, which includes 150 civilians, 40 SF and 218 insurgents whilst it was 285 in 2006, 331 in 2005, and 218 in 2004. Among the Northeast states, Manipur has the highest number of SFs causalities and it is higher than the total number of SF casualty in the other NE states. Outfits such as People's Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), People's Revolutionary Army of Kangleipak (PREPAK), National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak- Muivah and Khaplang) {NSCN (IM &K)} and People's United Liberation Fronth (PULF) are operating active mostly in Imphal West, Imphal East and Thoubal districts of the state. There was an attempt to attack at Manipur Chief Minister, Okram Ibobi, on November 23, 2007, which was foiled by security forces. Subsequently, an attack was launched against the Education Minister, L Jayentakumar by an unknown outfit on August 7, 2007.

Another deadliest attack was on June 9, 2007 when 11 people from Kuki ethnic tribe were killed by unidentified militants in Moreh (an economic hub in Manipur-Myanmar Border) and lead communal apprehensions between the Kuki groups and Meitei identity. The attacks completely crippled this economic hub. Interestingly, for the first time in Manipur, the nexus between Meitei Muslim and J&K based outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) was revealed on August 30, when a LeT operative hailing from Manipur, Mohammed Sadeeq, was apprehended from Kathua district in J&K. In fact, it revealed the act that the state was becoming one of the recruiting grounds for the terror outfit.

Though there is a cease fire agreement in Nagaland, the causality figures inflicted by the NSCN (IM&K) during their internecine clashes is significant. In 2007, 88 militants and 20 civilians (108 in total) were killed. The total number of fatalities was 92 in 2006, 40 in 2005, 53 in 2004 and 37 in 2003 in which most of them are their cadres. The fratricidal attack among the groups is one of the most crucial aspects of militancy in the state over the last many years. While the cease fire is on, terror violence continues unabated. On October 24-25, 2007, NSCN (IM) reportedly burnt down 500 houses in Peren district. Subsequently, on February 8, 2007, the group abducted seven civilians from a courtroom at Pungro in the Tuensang district and killed them at an unspecified place. Though the peace negotiation is on, unfeasible Naga demands like "special federal relationship" between its people and India, and territorial unification of Nagalim made it difficult to achieve meaningful progress in the negotiations. As a result, the peace process remains stagnant in the state over the past many years.

Terror-related fatalities in Tripura have significantly reduced in the past few years. The total number of people killed by militancy during 2007 was 36, which includes 10 civilians, 5 Security Forces and 21 militants. The toll was 60 in 2006, 73 in 2005, 167 in 2004 and 295 in 2003. While abduction and extortion still continues to rule the roost in the state, factional attacks among the outfits and surrender of cadres (of various groups) were common events last year. Fratricidal killings between National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLTF) and its splinter faction Biswamohan Debbarma group, the NLTF-BD has been a common feature. This outfit is considered to be the most active among the militant groups operating in the region. On December 31, a leader of the ruling CPI-M, Chandra Mohan Debbarma was shot dead by the faction group in West Tripura district.

At the same time, this is also the group from which cadres have surrendered the most. On March 5, 2007 the Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar declared in the state legislative assembly that the total number of cadres surrendered during the present government's tenure was 862. The significant number of surrenders in the past few years depleted cadre strengths of most outfits. As a result, these groups are now trying to regroup and revamp themselves with external support such as from ISI. The support from the ISI was revealed when two surrendered NLFT cadres disclosed that they have been sent to Karachi in batches for training under the ISI. They also confessed that they were imparted arms training in Hongkong. It may not be an unwise step for the union government to offer a cease fire agreement to these outfits at their current withering stage.

Terror related fatalities in Meghalaya have been on a downward slide since 2002. In 2007, 18 people have died, including four civilians, one SF and 13 militants, while it was 24 in 2006, 29 in 2005, 35 in 2004, 58 in 2003 and 64 in 2002. The indigenous groups actively operating in the region are Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) and Liberation of Achik Elite Force (LAEF). However operatives like NSCN-IM (Nagaland), ULFA (Assam), UNLF and PLA (Manipur) from the neighboring states are also clandestinely operating and using in this state as a safe heaven. There are indications of ULFA's expanded activities in the state. The state police recovered total nine kilograms of RDX from captured members of the outfit in January and November from Shillong and at the Assam-Meghalaya border.

Among those indigenous outfits in Meghalaya, the LAEF is the most potent organization which had undertaken attacks in Tura town and the coal-rich belt of Nangalbibra in South Garo Hills in June. Subsequently, on December 8, it ambushed a police convoy and snatched weapons near Songsak in the East Garo Hills district. In fact, a report published in November by Meghalaya Police stated that the outfit is trying to regroup in the coal belt areas of the West Khasi Hills and East Garo Hills districts. Conversely, outfits like HNLC is weakening after many of their cadre surrendered (including its women cadres) in recent months or were apprehended in large numbers by the security forces. At the same time, the ISI has been trying to use Meghalaya (or Shillong) as a hub to fueling insurgency and destablise the region's economy (by circulating fake Indian currency). Such designs were revealed in May when a police task force unearthed this modus operandi of the ISI in the Rasinagre and Doomdooma villages of the South Garo Hills district, along the India-Bangladesh border. In late December, the ISI-backed Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) threatened to blow up vital installations and security establishments in Shillong to take revenge on Khasi Students' Union for committing atrocities on Punjabis residing in Sweepers Colony (Punjabi Colony) in Lewduh (Shillong) the previous years (2006).

Mizoram remained notably peaceful in the recent years after its main militant outfit, the Bru National Liberation Front (BNLF), signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Mizoram Government on April 26, 2005. In January 2007, the state government sent government representatives to negotiate with the outfit, which operates in Mizoram, Manipur and Assam's Cachar and North Cachar Hills districts. However, the group is suspected to be involved in the killing o six Hmar National Army (HNA) militants in March 2007. In addition, the group was also under the needle of suspicion for the three serial blasts in Aizwal on October 1, 2007.

Arunachal Pradesh, though considered to be a non-violent zone in Northeast, is a base for outfits like ULFA, NSCN (IM&K) belonging to the neighbouring states. They are known to be operating in three districts - Tirap, Changlang and Lohit. Although, the casualty figure in the state was not available in 2007, four SF personnel were reportedly injured when ULFA triggered a bomb explosion on April 25, 2007 in Lohit district. Subsequently, an identical attack by the NSCN-IM on October 25, 2007 killed three Assam Rifles jawans and a civilian and injured eight at Tirap district. On December 23, unidentified militants shot dead a parliamentarian from Congress Party at his residence at Deomali in Tirap district. Considering the substantial number of militants in the region, the security forces have launched counter insurgency operations in January and June in the affected districts and have apprehended a number of cadres and confiscated large cache of weapons.

Militancy has intensified in the Northeast (in 2007), as illustrated by the rising casualty list (379) compared to previous years. The total number of fatalities in the region was 1019, including 453 civilians, 65 SF and 501 militants in 2007 while it was 640 in 2006. Subsequently, among the Indian conflict zones including J&K and Naxal-affected Region, Northeast scores the highest casualties figure in the year. Total number of casualties in 2007 in J&K was 777 including 164 civilian, 121 SF and 492 militants, while it was 650 including 240 civilian, 218 SF and 192 Naxalites. One significant reason why Northeast produced the highest causality rate among those terror zones was due to the considerable increase of violence and casualties in Assam and Manipur. Therefore, a serious security watch in the two states is necessary for the security establishment if it needs to control the fatalities rate and establish peace in the region in the coming years.

The writer is a researcher based in New Delhi. He can be contacted at khurshchev@yahoo.com