Despite the 23 point agreement between the SPA and the Maoists and their subsequent rejoining with the interim government in December 2007, uncertainty continues to prevail on the ongoing peace process in Nepal. In fact, the much expected Constituent Assembly (CA) elections remain doubtful and violence during election period due to resentment and rejection of the agreement by Madhesi armed groups. The Madhesi problem could be a spoiler to the forthcoming CA elections as well as the peace process. The problem has become serious because of the failure of the interim government to address the demands placed by the Madhesis.

The reactions are already visible. Seven people were killed and 22 others injured on 18th January after a bomb exploded in a bus in southern Nepal. The Terai Army, one of many armed groups engaged in secessionist activities in the Terai plains, claimed responsibility for the blast. This was the second incident since the announcement of the poll date on 11 January in Nepal. At least eight people were injured on 14th January in a bomb explosion at a rally in Kathmandu. The blast occurred near Ratna Park during a mass rally at the start of campaigning for elections due on 10th April. Earlier, in September 2007, the Terai Army claimed responsibility for a series of bomb blasts in Kathmandu which killed three people.

In fact, on 19th January, Maoist leader Prachanda accused "Hindu elements" in India for encouraging separatist outfits in Terai and trying to sabotage the Constituent Assembly elections. As a political tactic, the Nepalese Maoists have been fomenting anti-India feelings since 1996 amongst the masses in Nepal to retain their political support. He also accused "feudals and the pro-palace forces" for trying to derail the polls to stop the country from turning into a federal democratic republic. The Maoists also fear that the worsening law and order situation could prompt an army-backed coup, which may ultimately derail the ongoing peace process as well as the April polls.

The interim government has been neglecting the Madhesi issues because their demands like full proportional representation are not acceptable by major political parties like the Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal-UML and Communist Party of Nepa-Maoist (CPN-M). While the NC has been demanding equal division of the electoral system, the UML have been demanding that 60 per cent of the seats should be elected by proportional representation (PR) and 40 per cent by the fast past the post (FPP) system. Similarly, the Maoists have been demanding 80 and 20 percent of the seats to be filled up by PR and FPS respectively.

However, the Madhesi demands for autonomy to the Terai region have created suspicion among the major political parties in Nepal. Significantly, the Maoists who have earlier been fighting for the minority cause and favoured regional autonomy are no longer in support of such power devolutions. During the armed struggle, the Maoists had demanded nine autonomous regions in Nepal on the basis of minority and ethnic presence. As a result, the Madhesis had extended all possible help to the Maoists in exchange for their support to autonomy and social justice in the Terai region. In fact the 40 point demands placed by the Maoists before the armed struggle in 1996 had highlighted the need to address such grievances of minority communities. Once in the power spectrum, the Maoists did a u-turn and redefined their autonomy policy, which has virtually marginalized the Terai populace.

The Nepalese political parties are caught between the century old Pahari (people living in hilly areas) and the new Terai sentiments. The Maoists have strong influence in Pahari region. As a result, they are in a dilemma on the support to Madhesis. On the other hand, although the NC and UML have strong support base in Terai region, they refuse to hedge the Maoists on the Madhesi issue.

On the other hand, the Madehsi movement looks very loosely organized. Though the presence of 24 armed groups reflects the gravity and intensity of the movement, each of these groups have their own distinct demands. For example, while the Jwala Singh group demands a separate Terai state, others like Chure Bhawar groups demands a separate Chure Bhawar autonomous region within Terai. In fact, the resignation of Mahato and other political leaders might not be effective to bring these groups together. These groups are more identified as mercenary armed groups than those fighting for any peoples or ideological causes. Above all, it is practically impossible for any government to invite 24 armed groups for negotiations at one go. A confederate sentiment for collective bargaining is yet to take root among these groups. A brief description of some of these groups is given below.

Jantantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) was formed as a splinter group of the Maoists in 2004. The Morcha's aim is to establish an autonomous Terai region. However, it split into two further factions - one led by Jai Krishna Goit and another by Jwala Singh. Since then, both these factions have clashed with Maoist cadres, and are known to be opposing the peace process. Goit has stated that his party would not allow the elections in Terai region, and have termed it as a conspiracy hatched by the Pahadies. Both outfits oppose the Maoists because of their opposition to a separate Madhesi state.

The other major Madhesi group is the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum or Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF). Some media reports indicated that MPRF also have been indulging in protests and demonstrations since January 15, 2007. It has been demanding a republican system and has been advocating federalism, citizenship cards and an end to discrimination against the Madhesis. However, the MPRF says it does not believe in violence. The Terai Cobra, on its part, has vowed to launch an armed separatist struggle for an independent Terai state. It also opposes the presence of Pahadis in the Terai area. The outfit has presence in Bara, Parsa, Rautahat, and Sarlahi districts. The Madhesi Mukti Tigers (MMT) led by Sher Singh Rajput is expanding its network in all the Terai districts. The outfit is a little-known band that began to grab attention this year with a spate of abductions and enforced a "Madhes bandh" in 22 districts in the plains to demand the release of its detained leaders and withdrawal of criminal charges against them.
The Chure Bhawar Ekata Samaj, which strives for the establishment of a Chure Bhawar federal region, came into existence when the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF) did not include different races and religions of the Terai into its fold. The Janabadi Ganatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JGTMM), on the other hand, is believed to be active in Bara district. Other organizations include the Supkranti Dal and the Rasthriya Army Nepal - both of which are reportedly arming to fight for a separate state.

The presence of these armed groups may affect the election process and the functioning of UNMIN. There could be a spillover effect of such operations in other regions as well. The trends are already visible. The second round of verification by the UNMIN was delayed due to the clashes between the Maoists and the MRPF members. However, the MPRF have demanded the 'ouster' of the Maoists from the government and ban its youth wing, the YCL. The international community is also concerned on the YCL activities. The level and type of YCL activities and reported abuses vary from district to district. Most of the reports on their disruptive activities have come from the Western Region, though some also in the Central and Eastern Regions. Violence related to land issues has largely been reported in the Far and Mid-Western Regions. Many of the abductions recorded in the report occurred within the context of YCL "law enforcement" activities.

Considering the increasing political clout of the Maoists and their opposition to the Terai uprising, it is imperative for these groups to unite under a common banner to strengthen their movement. Unless they do it jointly, it would be wise for India, which is a potential backer for Terai autonomy, to keep a safe distance from these groups. India should not tarnish its image before international community by support small groups which have not attained any legitimacy. However, India should keep a tab on the Terai movement as it is linked with its influence over Nepal, as also by the fact that the Madeshis are of Indian-origin. While treating the issue as an internal matter of Nepal and putting political pressure on Kathmandu to be sensitive to the Terai struggle, India should wait for a larger joint platform to emerge to plunge itself more proactively into the Terai region.

Dr. Nihar Nayak is Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.