The Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP), a Taliban umbrella organization in Pakistan, has warned the Pakistani government to change course or face the consequences. It listed several demands including cessation of all actions against the organization by the Pakistani Army, withdrawal of support to the US-led coalition forces, removal of Musharraf from the Presidency, and implementation of the Shariah throughout Pakistan. It also asserted its right to use the Pakistani soil to attack the ISAF. Maulana Faqir, the deputy Naib Amir of the Tehrik, later claimed that Islam came first for them, rather than Pakistan. He also issued a direct warning that the reduction in the spate of suicide bombings across Pakistan was only because the Tehrik was observing a ceasefire.

The withdrawal of Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) has come as a sop to the Taliban who now expect that Shariah would replace the FCR. There is a broad support for such a move among all the coalition partners. However, the Tehrik will not remain satisfied with Shariah implementation just in FATA only. Having taken the maximalist position on the Shariah, it is likely to demand its implementation over the whole of North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

The Tehrik has shown that it means business when it engineered a bomb blast at the Mardan police station to avenge the death of a Taliban Commander, Hafeez Haq, even as Baitullah Mehsud strongly advised his cadres to respect the ceasefire. In order to win a wider acceptance among the masses, the Taliban also cleverly anointed themselves as the heir to Haji Turangzai, a much venerated anti-British Pashtun veteran of the early 20th century, and held a "Ghazi Islam Conference" instead of the traditional urs of Turangzai - the urs being an unacceptable practice to Wahhabi Islamists.

The announcements, more in the form of edicts, made during the Ghazi Islam Conference such as compulsory purdah for women, banning of riba etc., are similar to edicts passed by Taliban in Afghanistan earlier. Maulana Faqir also announced the Tehrik's intention to grant asylum to the 'Heroes of Islam' Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahiri if needed. Already, the legendary Afghan Taliban commander Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Sirajuddin Haqqani operate out of Waziristan areas with the Tehrik's support. Several past and present members of the Pakistani National Assembly attended this conference thereby lending credibility to the Tehrik and acknowledging their supremacy in FATA. The Taliban also announced a general amnesty to all opponents except to US spies - a euphemism for hostile jirga elders.

On the same day these decisions were announced by the Tehrik, a clip was televised by the Arabic TV Channel, Al-Arabiyya, where Tariq Azizuddin, the kidnapped Pakistani Ambassador for Afghanistan, pleaded with Pakistan to listen to the demands of the Taliban and save his life. Though he claimed he was under Taliban custody, the Tehrik denied it had ever abducted the Ambassador. It could not have been a coincidence that the Ambassador who was kidnapped on February 11th and was unheard of for more than two months was seen on TV the very same day especially when the recording had been made more than a month back. It could not be also a coincidence that he was kidnapped from the Jamrud area where the notorious Mangal Bagh, owing allegiance to the Taliban, holds sway.

The distancing of the Taliban from the kidnapping incident shows the desire of the Tehrik to exhibit a level of sophistication compatible with its new found stature as the rulers of FATA. Such a denial relieves them from coming under pressure especially as it is very difficult to identify who took him captive in an area festering with dozens of terrorist and tribal armies.

On the other hand, a desperate Pakistani government released Maulana Sufi Muhammad, chief of the Movement for the Enforcement of Mohammedan Law (TNSM), who has vowed to stay away from attacking Pakistani interests, a promise which Taliban commanders previously could hardly keep. The release of Maulana Sufi has resulted in calls to lift ban on other jihadi organizations, which the Government said was considering favourably. Reports speak of similar agreements being finalized between jihadi extremists and the Government for other FATA regions as well. Essentially, Pakistan will soon be back to where it was with respect to terrorism before the ban was imposed on these dangerous outfits.

The Tehrik has also started conducting 'jirgas' all over FATA with two objectives: one, to establish the Taliban as the undisputed arbiter in these areas and two, to propagate their world-view and facilitate recruitment of more jihadis. With the systematic elimination of village elders in the last few years under the guise of eliminating US spies, the Taliban will find it much easier to establish their own brand of jirgas and stamp their authority. The Taliban-style of swift and severe public punishment for crimes has already been implemented in several areas of FATA.

Pakistan has thereby effectively lost total control of these areas as their political agents have traditionally operated through these jirgas ever since the British established this mode of operation. The violent clashes in April 2008 between local tribesmen and Lashkar-e-Islam, affiliated to the Taliban, just outside Peshawar and their eventual surrender shows that the Taliban are controlling the approaches to Peshawar. Security officials have expressed alarm on the likely fall of Peshawar into Taliban hands.

Rumours were abuzz of a rift between Mullah Omar and Baitullah Mehsud and that Mehsud would be replaced. However, nothing of that sort has happened. This should therefore be treated as a psy-op by the Musharraf regime to drive a wedge among different constituents of the Tehrik. Today, the combined and coordinated operation of the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban with the foreign Al-Qaida groups (such as Uzbeks, Chechens and Arabs) along with political support from Islamist parties of Pakistan pose a severe challenge to Pakistan itself. A more worrying factor is the common man's support in Pakistan for these evil forces under the false thinking that the defeat of Americans, by whatever means, would solve all their problems.

Unfortunately, for various reasons, the stand taken by mainstream political parties in Pakistan is equally short-sighted and muddled. In its eagerness to show that it is not toeing the US line and also not to offend the sentiments of the Pakistani people, especially after the Lal Masjid fiasco, the Pakistani government is once again launching a peace initiative with a group that believes only in a literalist interpretation of Quran and not in modern democratic concepts. The Pakistani government's efforts to 'reach-out' to banned Islamist sectarian and jihadi organizations will only strengthen the hands of the jihadi extremists as all these organizations have mutual sympathies. The government's offer to negotiate with the Taliban will therefore be from a position of extreme weakness.

The implications of these peace deals cannot be lost on India and Afghanistan. Eventually, the Pakistani government will succumb to pressure from local jihadi outfits as well. It would not be far when sectarian organizations like Sunni Tehrik (ST) and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), among others, will demand a similar treatment. With the fetters removed, organizations like Lashkar and Jaish will once again direct large scale attacks against India. At the same time, these sectarian organizations will fight each other and rumblings are already being heard from Karachi. The Taliban/Al-Qaeda combination will fearlessly attack Afghanistan across the Durand line especially as the Pakistani Army is withdrawn as a quid-pro-quo for peace.

The severe clashes in Bajaur involving Afghan and Pakistani troops on 23rd April 2008 even as the peace deals were being negotiated portends of what is in store. The timid approach of the new political dispensation has not only undermined whatever little progress has been made in tackling the terrorist organizations but has also strengthened these outfits. Both Pakistan as well as the region, and beyond, will be in greater danger in the weeks and months ahead.

The author, an engineer by profession, is a keen observer of South Asian politics. He can be contacted at raptorss@gmail.com