The unprecedented electoral performance of the Maoists in Nepal has created a completely unforeseen situation in the Himalayan country. It might lead to the removal of the last vestiges of monarchy from Nepal and its transition to a republic where the king will not even be figurehead. This development, however, has created a difficult situation for countries like India and other western powers who considered these Maoists as outlaws. The likely Maoist ascendancy to power will test the resiliency of foreign policy of these countries. At the same time, it will also test the ability of Maoists to improve the situation in this under-developed country and their commitment to democracy.

The elections in Nepal promise to drastically change the country's politics. It has sealed the fate of the king. The former rebels who now plan to join mainstream have declared that they will abolish monarchy. The Maoist leadership has urged the country's beleaguered King Gyanendra to step down gracefully and vacate the royal palace.

The king however has some support among the mainstream politicians competing against the Maoists. They are sympathetic to the idea of keeping some form of symbolic monarch so as to guard the neutrality of a country wedged between Asian giants India and China. But it's unlikely that they will be able to save the king and monarchy as an institution.

Initially it appeared that the king will leave the country to avoid prosecution and humiliation at the hands of Maoists. But now indications are that the king does not want to leave the country so easily which his ancestors governed for 240 years. The Maoists have sought India's assistance to get rid of the king 'gracefully'.

It's a delicate situation for India. Though the present elections appear to be the last nail in the coffin of monarchy, the wooing of Maoists may only be in the short term interest of India and the world. It will be extremely difficult for the Maoists of Nepal to delink themselves with similar forces within India. The link with Maoists in India even in future will strain this relationship.

A Maoist regime in Nepal will force India to deal with a problem of similar nature with much greater urgency. The economic disparity which many see at the root of this problem will have to be tackled on a priority basis. This will also bring focus on good governance. In the immediate aftermath, this development could also lead to a surge in Maoist violence in India as the cadres of Indian Maoist groups might feel enthused.

Moreover, there will be China on the other side of the Nepalese border ever willing to take advantage of the situation in Nepal. Chinese companies are already aggressively pursuing lucrative deals to tap Nepal's glacial rivers for hydropower, while state officials are cozying up to the Maoists in Kathmandu. The Maoists have declared that they would develop an equally strong relationship with both India and China. Though Prachanda's statements expressing his keenness for good neighbourly relations with India are reassuring the bilateral Indo-Nepal relations, it would now be operating in an unchartered territory.

Neither India nor the other major powers were prepared for the Maoist ascendancy to power. But they have welcomed the results of Nepal elections. They know that Maoist rule in that country is now a fait accompli. The Maoists are however still classed by Washington as 'terrorists'. To correct this anomaly in the changed the circumstances, the former US president Jimmy Carter has urged that the Maoists be struck off the US terrorist list after the former rebels' strong early showing.

If the election results of Nepal has presented confounding situation for the major powers of the world, Maoist themselves would be facing certain challenges. They have to deal with issues ranging from drafting constitution, to foreign policy to improving economy and job creation. Maoists are still viewed with deep suspicion by many and accused of using bullying tactics despite their pledge to embrace multi-party democracy.

Their leaders seem to be preparing for some of them. In his first meeting with business leaders in the capital, Prachanda promised "economic miracles" for the aid-dependent Himalayan country. But it seems it will take time before things stabilize in Nepal. Prachanda will now face a challenge of restraining victorious Maoist mobs and find some sort of accommodation with the army. Though senior army figures like Brigadier General Shiva Ram Pradhan, have expressed the willingness of the military to work with the new government it will be tall order for Prachanda to make them acceptable to the Maoists with whom they have fought earlier.

There have been reports that Maoist youth league members have attacked members of other parties in outlying districts. A large number of these cadres reportedly indulged in intimidating the voters during the elections, many of whom have failed to adapt to civil life after years spent ambushing and bombing their way to the capital.

The monarchy as an institution seems doomed in Nepal. In the short term it appears that Maoists will govern under a democratic form of government either on their own or as a coalition. A lot will depend on the success of this government. But in case democracy in Nepal fails to deliver, the country will be thrown in a much worse kind of civil war, where Maoists will be fighting other political forces to create their original aspired communist republic.

For India, things would depend on how it is able to restrain its domestic Maoist insurgency. Indian Maoists, if not checked, are bound to look to their privileged counterparts in Nepal for support. For Nepalese Maoists it will be extremely difficult to leave them in cold. Therefore, one can assume that wooing the Nepalese Maoists will only bring a short term respite to India.

The writer is Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He can be contacted at: anand_rai@hotmail.com