Edward Lorenz, (born 1918) the world famous mathematician who pioneered the concept of chaos theory better known as the butterfly effect, and died on April 16 in Massachusetts, USA, seems an unlikely connection to invoke for the current political dynamic in South Asia - but some very complex chaos theory is clearly at work in the region. But to revert to Lorenz, a meteorologist, he advanced a hypothesis that when it comes to weather forecasting, it is very difficult to be accurate - a truism that is universally recognized, since very small changes in a given domain can cause complex effects in a larger dynamic process - in this case, the atmosphere. His 1972 paper entitled: "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas?" gave his theory the butterfly halo. And today, chaos theory is deemed to be as seminal as Einstein's relativity theory.

South Asia in 2008 has been the domain for similar socio-political turbulence that has defied the conventional wisdom of the day. Three national elections have changed the political texture of South Asia - beginning with the heady results of February in Pakistan, followed by the more predictable pattern in Bhutan in March and now most recently the unique electoral verdict in Nepal in April. It is expected that Bangladesh will go to the polls in late 2008 and any certitude about what will happen in Dhaka must be kept on hold.

Reviewing the individual countries, it is accepted that apropos Pakistan in the run-up to the February elections, few could have anticipated the post election results that emerged. The Pak Army as epitomized by General Pervez Musharraf and his party - the PML(Q) - were roundly rejected by the Pakistani people and some very unlikely coalitions have since been established both at the centre in Islamabad and in the individual provinces. How long they will last remains moot but in this case, the sacking of the Chief Justice of the Pakistan Supreme Court by President Musharraf in March 2007 followed by the tragic assassination of Ms. Benazir Bhutto in December 2007 are analogous to the butterfly that led to the socio-political dynamic that was unleashed on February 18, 2008.

Bhutan's election in March was more orderly and may be the exception, but the robust expression of political franchise in a nascent democratic framework in what is perhaps the most secluded monarchy of the world is an extraordinary electoral development in itself. Even here, the scale of the victory by the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa party had belied the expectations of most observers. The huge voter turnout of almost 80 percent in a reclusive kingdom which was holding its first ever election is also an indicator of the general trend in South Asia where the fervour for democracy appears to be spreading by osmosis.

It is Nepal that remains the most intriguing and distinctive in the current South Asian survey. The scale of the victory of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has come as an unexpected surprise even to seasoned Nepal watchers and this is the first instance in modern history of a political party with an extreme leftwing Maoist ideology winning through the ballot what it could not in ten years of armed struggle with the bullet. But here again, the transition from a traditional monarchy that reigned supreme with divine sanction remains fraught with challenges and more of the Lorenz butterfly effect cannot be ruled out.

Two determinants of this recent South Asian experience merit preliminary analysis. Clearly the fervour for democratic rule has cast aside the firm grip of traditional ruling patterns - that of the Army in the case of Pakistan and the monarchy in Bhutan and Nepal. The second is the degree to which globalization by way of technology-enabled communication has shaped the political process in the region. The internet, the mobile phone and the reach of the audio-visual medium helped impart traction and directivity to people's power in the case of Pakistan and Nepal - and on current evidence, it would be fair to assume that Bangladesh in late 2008 will not be an exception.

This is where the non-linear Lorenzian extrapolation to China may be valid. In this period, March-April 2008, the relay of the Olympic torch was disrupted by the Tibetan collective - both within Tibet itself and among the diaspora scattered in places as far apart as London, Paris, San Francisco, New Delhi and Kathmandu. With democracy receiving stirring endorsement from South Asian states that had a long experience with authoritarianism of one form or the other (Pakistan and Nepal), and encouraged by the international community, one could aver that this butterfly may have catalyzed the Tibetan tornado that followed the Olympic torch. Will this Tibetan fervour for socio-cultural and political autonomy and the global support it has garnered peak in the run-up to the grand extravaganza slated for August 8, 2008 in Beijing?

This is the exigency that the leadership of the PRC is determined to avoid. But if the Lorenz tenet is valid, it is not certain that Beijing will be able to ensure that events un-spool in the ordained manner. Ruling elites in authoritarian South Asia have shown a propensity to emulate King Canute - that is to command the sea waves to obey royal decree - and to ignore the chaotic societal fervour that has its own dynamic. The Chinese leadership which has demonstrated commendable economic and trade pragmatism in keeping with the dictates of globalization and the free-market will do well to study the recent Lorenzian phenomenon in South Asia and derive the appropriate butterfly cues in the very dynamic socio-political domain of this century.


Commodore Bhaskar, formerly head of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi and later Member-Secretary of the Task Force on 'Global Strategic Developments', is an independent security and foreign affairs analyst. Contact: cudayb@gmail.com.