Open season has been declared on Pakistan and President Musharraf by the media, think tanks and political leadership in the West including the US. The 'indispensable' ally has become a liability. Denunciation of his policies and actions against the media and judiciary are becoming shrill and vociferous. Doomsday scenarios are being painted of the future of Pakistan - a nuclear state.

The US and European media and think tanks are accordingly advising the US administration to distance itself from Musharraf regime, which has shown signs of collapse. Notwithstanding the president's tenacity to hold onto power, there is strong evidence to suggest that military commander, who is also the president of the Republic is getting isolated and has lost most of his appeal and support among the masses. The triumphant return of Benazir and the tragic suicide attacks in Karachi, Waziristan and Swat, in the opinion of these analysts, show that Musharraf is no longer governing the country, but merely ruling it with the support of the US.

Regardless of the unpopularity of the president, the US and west still reckon Musharraf indispensable, at least for now, to wage the war against terror and fulfil the US agenda at the risk of Pakistan's long term integrity and security. The president's pre-occupation with war against terror has denied him the time to take stock of the situation at home or take determined steps against those challenging the writ of the government in the northern Pakistan, where the fundamentalist movement has paralysed the local administration and the Mullahs have declared the Shariah as the law of the land and exercising authority in total disregard of the federal government's policies. The reluctance and hesitance of the president to nip the evil in its bud, has further disenchanted his western friends.

The instability in Pakistan will continue until the elections are over and a popular leader takes reins of authority. The interim period of six weeks until elections in the context of the current turmoil will test the capacity of caretaker administration. It has an inauspicious start as Benazir has rejected the caretakers, being Musharraf's henchmen.

The US has a great stake in Pakistan not only to take the war on terror to its logical consequence, its nuclear capability has yet another source of worry to the US administration. Bush's neo-con advisors are harping on the theme that victory of Islamists, following imminent general elections, will destabilise the region and the command and control of nuclear assets in their hand would be a catastrophe.

America's stakes in any government or country were never as high and sensitive as in a nuclear Pakistan. To ward off any unhelpful development, the US has not only encouraged Benazir and Musharraf for a rapprochement, but the alliance has come unstuck. The US brokered the power sharing deal, as it was felt that "might be the only way that could keep General Musharraf from being toppled." according to a commentary in the New York Times. The paper further noted that "there is no great love in the Bush Administration for Ms Bhutto," besides both "Bhutto and Musharraf hate each other and the concept that they can somehow work collaboratively is a real stretch".

Benazir Bhutto after her arrival in Karachi and having taken stock of the ground realities decided to go back on her understanding with the US and Musharraf, and has calculated that role of an opposition leader rather than a partner in power sharing would be far more advantageous. The reluctant protagonists have began the familiar blame game each accusing the other responsible for the current mess. The break is now final. The disenchantment of US media and intelligentsia with Musharraf appears total and complete. "Washington Post" in an editorial comment severely criticized Musharraf's "misrule of Pakistan during the past 8 years by this autocratic, but ineffective ruler"; and called administration support for Musharraf, "dangerously short sighted, since Musharraf is unlikely to survive for long".

Washington Post on Oct 18 carried a critique of US policy towards Pakistan by Terrisita Schaffer, a former ambassador and currently South Asia Director of CSIS. She maintained that "US has a highly personal policy, centered on Musharraf and he still remains "embodiment of US policy towards Pakistan". These assessments are shared by the US law makers too. Senator Joe Biden, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a democrat presidential candidate in an interview with ABC said that "we have a Musharraf policy. We do not have a Pakistan policy". Expressing US concerns regarding Pakistan's nuclear capability, Senator Biden suggested that in the event of fall of Musharraf, the US should send troops to Pakistan to secure the country's nuclear arsenal". The influential conservative Heritage Foundation in a recent analysis urged Washington to review its overall policy towards Pakistan and should make the issue of denying terrorist safe heaven in border areas a "focal point" of its partnership with Pakistan.

Carnegie Endowment in a report captioned "Re-thinking Western strategies towards Pakistan - An action agenda for the US and Europe" has recommended that without democratization Pakistan's role against international terrorism would continue to result in regional instability. "Policies and if necessary sanctions should be directed towards the military and Pakistan's small elite". Punitive action and other coercive measures are being recommended; to compel Musharraf lift the emergency and drop his uniform. Nogroponte's visit to Islamabad with a "tough message" from Bush was part of this coercive public diplomacy. Commonwealth is likely to suspend even revoke Pakistan's membership. EU is contemplating similar legislative and financial measures. Such blatant interference in the internal political issues of a country is without precedence.

Another New York Times commentary states that Pakistan is proving a 'night mare' for Bush administration, particularly the prospects of its nuclear arsenal falling into wrong hands. President Musharraf has assured the Bush administration that even if he was ousted or assassinated, the mechanism for command and control are unbreakable. The US concerns, however are not mitigated by such assurances, as it believes that it was feasible that terrorists could acquire an atomic bomb or capability and such risk is enhanced with the collapse of government control over civil and military nuclear facilities and material.

Two respected nuclear experts Friederick Kagan and Michael o'Henlon in and article, published on 19 November's The New York Times have gone beyond sanctions. In their view US simply cannot stand by as a nuclear armed Pakistan descended into abyss. Painting far fetched scenarios of Pakistan's collapse both recommend two options - a Special Forces Operation to prevent Pakistan's nuclear materials and war heads from getting into the wrong hands. The other alternate course could be American forces team up with Pakistan's army "to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place.

With feelings gaining ground that there is growing danger of Talibanisation of Pakistan and prevalent perceptions that Pakistan is a failed state and Musharraf, not a credible ally, the bilateral relations are bound to come under increasingly strains and a big question mark hangs over the future direction. I have earlier cautioned against US's real intentions and objectives. The current political turmoil and weakening of military authority is a golden opportunity for the West and US to initiate steps to neutralize Pakistan's nuclear capability. A recent The New York Times report reveals that US has been involved in securing Pakistan's nuclear assets in a top secret program and has spent $ 100 million during last six years.

US's crusade for democracy, rule of law and free and fair elections in Pakistan are of importance to it, but the real objective is to neutralize Pakistan's nuclear capability and this effort has been masked behind US's concern for democracy and human rights in Pakistan. Negroponte's sermons on the virtues of democracy and rule of law and demands for limiting emergency ring hollow considering Bush's patronage of Musharraf during the last seven years. The Bush Administrations record of support to despots and silence on stark human rights violations in some countries particularly in the Middle East is manifest to all.