On Saturday, December 15th, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, now a retired General, dramatically announced the lifting of emergency rule imposed by him on November 3rd - when he was still the Pakistani COAS. In reality this was more an imposition of martial law with the Constitution suspended and the judges of the Supreme Court sacked but the semantic charade of 'emergency' continued. In the interim, General Musharraf demitted office as the COAS and handed over the ceremonial baton - with some trepidation one presumes - to his chosen successor General Pervez Kayani - and was swiftly sworn in as a civilian President. The trepidation was predictable, for Gen. Musharraf more than anyone else, knows, that in Pakistan, true power flows from the COAS baton and that as a civilian former General, albeit President, his clout now remains considerably diluted.

Yet, in his television address (December 15) to his people, President Musharraf confidently asserted that the national elections would be held as per schedule on January 8th and that the beleaguered Pakistani state would soon be back on the democracy track. That would be the "happiest day of my life" he added for good measure. This goes back to a commitment he had made on April 9, 2002 prior to the first referendum that allowed him to become President. At the time, in Lahore it was his first attempt at entering the political arena. Attired in full military regalia, he rhetorically asked: "Do you want to elect Pervez Musharraf for the next five years for survival of the local government system; restoration of democracy; continuity and stability of reforms; eradication of extremism and sectarianism; and for the accomplishment of Jinnah's concept?" The answer was a predictable and resounding 'yes' - and today almost six years later - Mr. Musharraf can claim to have redeemed his pledge. He proudly announced that harmony has been restored between the executive, legislature and the judiciary and furthermore, that extremism and religious radicalism as experienced in the Swat region has been finally put down.

However a closer examination of the domestic situation in Pakistan and the many amendments that have been effected in the Constitution prior to the lifting of emergency would suggest that the ostensible return to normalcy is more cosmetic than substantive. One major change has been the removal of the provision introduced in Pakistan's Constitution in 2003 that was Musharraf specific and pertained to his holding dual offices - as COAS and President. It may be recalled that it was this very issue that was being heard by a bench of the Pakistan Supreme Court in October this year and the sense that there would be an adverse ruling encouraged Gen. Musharraf to take recourse to the draconian measures that he did on November 3 rd. The second that is even more significant is the amendment that does not allow the ousted judges of the Pakistan higher judiciary from being re-instated - ever. They have been formally retired and given their pensions and when last heard, they were being prevailed upon to vacate their palatial, official houses.

Thus the judiciary remains subservient to the executive and any suggestion that this is appropriately harmonious to a democratic framework is grossly misleading. As regards the political parties who will form the legislature, the two principal political leaders - Nawaz Sharief and Benazir Bhutto - who have been Prime Ministers twice - are still not sure that they will be allowed to become PM for a third time since the Constitution prohibits it. And President Musharraf is very unlikely to endorse any amendment to the Constitution to facilitate such an eventuality. But since both the major parties have indicated that they will not boycott the 'free and fair' January 8th elections, the veneer of true and full participation by the full spectrum of Pakistani political representatives will continue.
But it remains a veneer - the many promises and pledges made by Musharraf when he was a serving General - first in April 2002 and many times since then right up to November 2007. The media now remains partially gagged and the liberalism that was once nurtured by him is now tainted - though the veneer of a free media is maintained. The veneer is most evident in the context of breaking the back of religious radicalism and related terrorism. Even as the President was preparing to lift the emergency, separate suicide bombers killed security personnel and innocent civilians in Quetta and Nowshera and now Kohat. More embarrassingly and perhaps ominously, the Daily Times noted editorially (December 16) about the writ of the Pakistani state being challenged: "Forty Taliban leaders from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and some normally governed districts of the NWFP have set up a centralised organisation called 'Tehreek-e Taliban-e Pakistan' under warlord Baitullah Mehsud of South Waziristan 'to enforce sharia and to unite against the NATO forces in Afghanistan and do (sic) defensive jihad against the Pakistan army.' The new command has threatened to react if the military action in Swat is not abandoned."
Is the Musharraf declaration of victory in Swat and cessation of operations by the Pakistani military a tactical ploy - one more cosmetic flourish in the run-up to January 8th? The two Pervezs, Musharraf and Kayani as President and COAS respectively have many complex challenges ahead of them in the coming weeks and while there is intense external pressure on them to bring Pakistan back onto the rails of democracy - it will be both notional and partial - which is par for the course as far as Pakistan's hapless people are concerned.
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(Commodore Bhaskar, formerly head of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi and later Member-Secretary of the Task Force on 'Global Strategic Developments' is an independent security and foreign affairs analyst. Contact cudayb@gmail.com )