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Musharraf in serious trouble, says South Asia expert



Washington, Aug 20 : Noted South Asia expert Teresita C Schaffer feels that Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf, who has been the centrepiece of US policymaking in the region, is in "serious trouble" ahead of the elections in the country.

According to Schaffer, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Musharraf is facing an awakened political opposition in Pakistan, though not a united one.

Schaffer said in a recent interview to the Council on Foreign Relations that the trouble for Musharraf lies in the fact that many people think it is in some sense democratically inappropriate for the President to get himself elected by assemblies that are about to be abolished.

That is going to be a focus for political protest, Schaffer said, adding that the more complicated issue, however, is that Musharraf wants to run as a general and head of the army.

She said that Musharraf's second source of trouble is related to domestic extremism, following the Lal Masjid episode.

The Daily Times quoted Schaffer as saying that the problem started with Musharraf's decision to send in the army to the Lal Masjid in Islamabad. The aftermath of that decision has been a string of violence that is unmatched in the Capital, as well as in the areas near the Afghan border, and also far away from that.

She said the violence in Pakistan since the Lal Masjid operation may lead to rethinking among army leaders on the value of maintaining extremists in the country as a political force.

"We need to watch and see if they have really decided they need to put these people out of business. If they have, that would be an important policy turn for the United States. To be fair, it's a high-risk policy, but there are no risk-free policies in today's Pakistan," she said.

However, she added that Musharraf's basic approach to the extremists, both the domestic ones and those on the Afghan circuit, has been to hedge-- try to keep them under control, but not to put them out of business.

The third problem the General faces, according to her, is the traditional feud with India. Schaffer said that Kashmir is the "poster child" for this dispute, but by no means the only part of it.

At the moment, India and Pakistan have a going. It's not clear that this dialogue is going to accomplish anything much in the near term, but at least it represents a decision by both governments that they would rather talk than squabble, she said.



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